Disaster is not a reason: why Trump is hesitant to reach out to Putin.

On Wednesday, January 29, a PSA Airlines aircraft was operating a scheduled flight for American Airlines from Wichita to Washington. At 8:47 PM local time (3:47 AM Thursday in Kyiv), the Bombardier CRJ700 was already on approach to land at Ronald Reagan National Airport. At the same time, a Sikorsky UH-60 helicopter from the U.S. Army was completing its training flight nearby. Both aircraft were on a collision course. Airport controllers, noticing the dangerous proximity of the airliner and the helicopter, began calling the latter's crew: “PAT 2-5, do you see the CRJ? PAT 2-5, yield to the CRJ and follow behind it.” After a long pause, the military pilot finally responded: “PAT 2-5 sees the aircraft, requesting instructions to avoid a collision.” But it was too late: 13 seconds later, an explosion was recorded. Debris fell into the Potomac River.

There were 64 people on board the Bombardier, including four crew members. The Sikorsky UH-60 helicopter crew consisted of three individuals. Most passengers of the PSA Airlines flight were returning to Washington from the U.S. Figure Skating Championships, including skaters, their coaches, and family members. Among them were several former Russian athletes, including world champions in pairs figure skating Evgenia Shishkova and Vadim Naumov, as well as Soviet figure skater Inna Volyanskaya, who worked in the U.S. as coaches.

Approximately three hundred rescuers arrived at the crash site, tasked with searching for survivors and recovering the bodies of the deceased in the dark. However, the chances of saving anyone were slim. Around eight in the morning on Thursday local time (15:00 in Kyiv), John Donnelly, the chief of the D.C. fire department and emergency medical services, told reporters that 28 bodies had been recovered from the river. “We do not believe that anyone survived,” he concluded. Following this, the rescue operation turned into a body recovery and debris collection effort.

The airspace over Reagan Airport is one of the busiest in the U.S., with passenger planes often flying at the same time as helicopters. However, their coexistence is strictly regulated by air traffic control. “The courses followed by the military helicopter and the American Airlines plane were completely standard for Washington,” said U.S. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy on Thursday. “This is a routine situation. But this time, something went wrong.”

It should be noted that this disaster became the deadliest in the U.S. since November 2001. At that time, as a reminder, an American Airlines flight crashed shortly after taking off from JFK International Airport in New York, resulting in the deaths of 265 people. The investigation into the current aviation disaster will be conducted by the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB). Experts will examine why the helicopter crew did not change course and why air traffic controllers did not issue clear commands.

Donald Trump, at a special briefing, stated that the U.S. and Russia had already contacted each other regarding the transfer of the deceased's bodies but clarified that he had not spoken with Putin. The Kremlin spokesperson Peskov also stated that there had been “no conversation” between the Kremlin dictator and the old-new American leader thus far.

Meanwhile, the State Duma of Russia intends to send appeals to most countries regarding the need to investigate information about a planned assassination attempt on Putin by U.S. authorities. This was recently stated by Leonid Slutsky, the head of the State Duma Committee on International Affairs. “We have already sent messages to several parliaments around the world and will try to send them to most, including smaller countries on different continents. There should be an objective, impartial, and thorough investigation,” noted Slutsky on the air of “Russia 24.”

At the same time, the speaker of the State Duma Vyacheslav Volodin sent a message to the U.S. Congress and the UN. “Neither Biden nor Blinken denied what was stated. The preparation of an assassination attempt on Putin, the very discussion of it, is a crime. A serious threat to global security. A direct path to the onset of nuclear war. For all international institutions, this should serve as a basis for inquiry,” wrote Volodin on social media. He reminded about the assassination attempts on Trump and Fico and stated that “the discussion of the intention to kill Putin should be taken seriously.” Volodin also called for accountability for Blinken and Biden. It is evident that this activity was coordinated with the Kremlin. It is possible that this is an attempt to remind Trump of the nuclear war threat to push him towards negotiations.

Recall that on January 28, controversial American journalist Tucker Carlson stated that the previous U.S. administration, particularly then-Secretary of State Antony Blinken, wanted to “accelerate the war” with Russia and “attempted to kill” Putin.

“Tucker Carlson's statement, where he claims that Blinken planned the assassination of Putin, is a direct preparatory step for the Trump-Putin negotiations. Trump openly revealed his main trump card – Putin's fear for his own life. It is no secret that until recently both parties in the U.S. maintained a solid position: negotiations with Russia do not imply a regime change. A week ago, in his first interview after the inauguration, Trump threatened Russia with an oil collapse. Between the lines, it could be read that if they refuse to negotiate, the position on regime change might be reconsidered. Now, through Tucker Carlson (who interviewed Putin), the Russian leadership is being told directly: you can be replaced. And this is what Putin fears the most. Simultaneously, there was a nearly synchronous statement from India and China that they would not buy Russian oil from March due to increased freight costs. Of course, this is just a warning, not a final decision. But such news cannot help but unsettle (scare) Putin,” states political scientist Vadim Denisенко.

According to the expert, Trump's overall game with Putin now looks like this: the U.S. president is raising the stakes as much as possible on all fronts, forcing Putin to engage in quick negotiations. “The key word is ‘quick.’ And now the White House is waiting for ‘smart’ compromises from Russia. Apparently, the White House believes that Putin has almost no options to refuse. However, they have clearly outlined what they will do if he does not agree. But as soon as Putin demonstrates readiness for the same ‘compromises,’ Trump’s attention may shift to Kyiv. And it seems to me that our mistake is that we are almost silent about our red lines while being maximally focused on NATO, which, again from my perspective, is currently not gaining traction, as Trump will begin negotiations with the premise that Ukraine will not join NATO,” concludes Denisенко.

In turn, political scientist Alexander Kochetkov emphasizes the following: “It is already completely clear that NATO is not in our immediate future. By the way, I expressed my views on NATO immediately after the corresponding amendments to the Constitution of Ukraine appeared. It is impossible to enshrine in our Basic Law something that does not depend on us! It’s like making it a constitutional norm that every Ukrainian woman must give birth only to future Nobel laureates. It sounds nice, but how to implement it in practice? By the way, we could state that Ukraine reserves the right to create weapons of mass destruction for self-defense – we would be heavily criticized, sanctions would be imposed, but the creation of such weapons would still depend on Ukraine. But to state membership in an international organization where we are not welcomed is ignorance or provocation. More importantly, NATO has demonstrated its incompetence in countering aggression from the Russian non-empire. NATO member countries do help Ukraine, but the Alliance as an organization – almost not at all. So why do we need this bureaucratic burden with enormous membership fees, which will not protect us anyway? Therefore, most likely, the mention of NATO in the Constitution will have to be removed. It will be embarrassing, and there will be a lot of noise, but correcting mistakes is typically more challenging and unpleasant than making them. It seems to me that Petro Poroshenko is currently being pressured and threatened with sanctions precisely so that he, if not himself, at least does not oppose the repeal of the NATO provision,”

Regardless, it is evident today that Donald Trump, at the very least, is publicly and consistently moving along the path of increasing pressure not on Kyiv, but on Moscow: he is not entering negotiations with Putin, but is threatening tough sanctions and other measures against the Russian Federation. If Trump has definitively and irrevocably committed to such a tactic, then the start of negotiations may be postponed at least until mid-March. Just in time for when the sanctions against the Russian oil sector will effectively come into force, and it will become clear, firstly, how strong a blow they will deal to the economy of the aggressor country, and secondly, whether there are prospects for agreements with OPEC to lower oil prices, which Trump recently called for.