Chinese Connection: How Trump is Engaging Beijing to Help Resolve the Russia-Ukraine War.

Influential Western media outlets are reporting in unison about a serious threat of a new strike from "Oreshnik" against Ukraine. "Russia may conduct another test of the medium-range ballistic missile 'Oreshnik' in the coming days," stated an unnamed White House representative to Reuters and Bloomberg.

The Associated Press released similar information regarding the situation, referencing data from American intelligence. According to an AP source, the U.S. views 'Oreshnik' more as an attempt at intimidation than as something that could change the battlefield dynamics. The source also indicated that Russia only possesses a few 'Oreshnik' missiles, which carry a smaller warhead than other missiles that the aggressor country systematically launches at Ukraine.

It is worth noting that recently, the American embassy in Ukraine issued another warning about an increased threat of air strikes on Ukraine, similar to the warnings issued shortly before the first 'Oreshnik' strike. Additionally, domestic military channels report some activity at the 'Kapustin Yar' testing ground in the aggressor country's Astrakhan region, from which the first 'Oreshnik' was launched.

However, despite this chain of alarming signals, some experts hold a different view regarding the 'nut' threat. In particular, political scientist Vadim Denisенко observes: "For the second time during the full-scale war, Medvedev has been invited to Beijing (the previous visit was in December 2022, where discussions included the inadmissibility of a nuclear strike). What will they discuss now? Firstly, China seemingly wants to understand the contours of Russia's real, rather than publicly stated, wishes regarding the end of the conflict (read agreements with the U.S. on freezing the conflict). Secondly, China will propose its vision for China-Russia relations (read outlines of confrontation with the U.S.). Thirdly, China shows a desire to end the conflict, but this is not a priority at the moment. Importantly for us: while Medvedev is in China, the likelihood of an 'Oreshnik' strike in the next two days is minimal. If it happens, it would mean that Putin is publicly disrespecting Beijing."

We emphasize in italics three times that the expert is referring to the coming days, whereas many analysts believe that in the weeks leading up to Trump's inauguration (scheduled for January 20, 2025), the Russian-Ukrainian war could enter a period of significant escalation. On Wednesday, December 11, this sentiment was echoed by the Prime Minister of neighboring Hungary, Viktor Orban, who, after visiting Trump in the U.S., called Putin. Following this conversation, this political figure stated bluntly: "I had an hour-long phone conversation with President Putin. We are living in the most dangerous weeks of the war. We are utilizing all available diplomatic means to facilitate a ceasefire and achieve peace." According to the official version from the Kremlin, the bunker inhabitant informed the Hungarian Prime Minister that Ukraine "excludes the possibility of a peaceful settlement."

Regarding this, the Bankova reacted very harshly to the contacts between Budapest and Moscow. "We all hope that Viktor Orban will not at least call Assad in Moscow to listen to his hour-long lectures. There is no need to play on one's own image at the expense of unity – we need to care about collective success," wrote President Volodymyr Zelensky on social media.

It is quite revealing that Putin's spokesperson Peskov stated that Orban did not pass any messages from Trump to Putin, and that no conversation between the "two presidents" is currently being prepared.

By the way, speaking of Trump, Reuters recently reported details of his recent meeting with Zelensky and Macron in Paris.

If this report is to be believed, the presidents of Ukraine and France attempted to persuade Trump to adopt a hardline stance towards Putin and to convince him to avoid compromises with Russia. According to Reuters, at that meeting, Trump expressed his desire for an immediate ceasefire and negotiations to quickly end the war. However, Zelensky responded that "guarantees are needed for peace, as a mere ceasefire is insufficient." Macron and Zelensky reportedly "were on the same wavelength," but tried not to show it in front of Trump so as not to "corner him." Both presidents attempted to explain to the seasoned new leader of the U.S. that "Putin in 2024 is not the same as he was in 2017," during the Republican's first presidency. At the same time, the agency notes that neither Donald Trump nor his advisors provided a clear answer to the question of the current head of Bankova's security guarantees, which official Kyiv demands as part of a possible settlement. Judging by the fact that the day after the Paris rendezvous, Trump called for an immediate ceasefire, appealing not only to Moscow but also to Beijing, it seems that Zelensky's and Macron's arguments did not significantly influence his position.

Chairman of the Institute of World Politics Viktor Shlinchak notes regarding this: "Trump does not have (yet) mechanisms to influence Russia directly. But he needs to demonstrate a 'quick peace.' Hence his invitation to a third player – China (by the way, it was recently reported that Trump invited the Chinese leader to his inauguration – ed.). If Trump brings Putin and Xi Jinping to the negotiating table, both will play against the U.S. But this is precisely what Putin would strategically desire – a new Yalta on the division of the world. I believe the Trump team is aware of this, and therefore this narrative will be 'sold' to Putin as a dream, while they will aim for Russia to come to the negotiations in a weaker position. Can Trump persuade Xi to convince Putin to retreat? Theoretically yes, however, the benefits from a warring Russia for China outweigh those in a situation where Russia begins to return to 'peaceful life.' All of this indicates that Ukraine will become part of a larger package of agreements. This package is still in the process of formation and examination."

"Trump's transition administration has just gained access to intelligence data and is trying to build a new architecture of foreign policy. However, speed is not a category that reliably leads to success (our president's team experienced this in 2019 as well). Problems arise much more frequently than solutions from the past. Israel, Georgia, Syria – this is what is currently topping the news agencies. And what do we know about the military clashes in Myanmar, Nigeria, Sudan, Cameroon, Pakistan, or those places that, according to the potential threat index, could evolve into new hotspots? Therefore, everything is moving according to a scenario that is still far from the desired quick and just peace. But let’s wish Trump's team good luck. After all, every American president tries to 'reset' relations with the Kremlin. But I don't recall anyone achieving that quickly and effectively," the expert concludes.

If we are not talking about every American president but specifically about the currently serving one, it is necessary to note Joe Biden's turbo mode regarding Ukraine. Bloomberg, citing informed sources, reports that the White House may impose stricter sanctions on Russian oil exports, aiming to increase pressure on Moscow ahead of Donald Trump's return to the White House. The details of potential measures are still being worked out, the agency notes.

It should be noted that Biden has long and painstakingly resisted such steps due to concerns that they could trigger a spike in energy prices, especially ahead of the elections in the U.S. However, with falling oil prices and considering Trump's victory, as well as fears that he might attempt to force Ukraine into a 'quick deal' with Russia, the Biden administration is "prepared for more aggressive actions," sources tell Bloomberg. They also indicate that Joe Biden and his team are considering new sanctions aimed at the tanker fleet used by Russia to transport its oil. New restrictions on the so-called shadow fleet may be announced in the coming weeks.

Similar measures regarding Russia's 'shadow' fleet are also planned by the European Union (EU) by the end of the year. These sanctions are expected to target individuals involved in the aggressor country's oil trade. One option could be restrictions similar to those currently in place regarding Iranian black gold. In such a case, oil buyers could face penalties from the U.S. "However, this carries risks, considering that the main consumers of Russian oil are large countries, including India and China. Furthermore, sanctions could lead to a sharp rise in oil prices and tensions in the global economy. This could also escalate tensions with both adversaries and partners through which the U.S. seeks to limit the export of sensitive goods, such as chips and other technologies that fuel the Russian military machine," Bloomberg summarizes.

In this context, it is important to remind that throughout the years of the full-scale Russian-Ukrainian war, the Biden administration has limited itself to establishing price caps on crude Russian oil.