Between Donald and Andrzej: What Zelensky's visit to Poland revealed.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky visited Poland for a working trip on the same day that the presidential election campaign officially kicked off. The Polish will choose a new leader on May 18, and if necessary, a second round of voting will take place on June 1. We will return to the electoral dynamics in Poland a bit later. For now, let’s focus on the visit of the current guarantor of the Ukrainian Constitution to Warsaw.

Considering that Poland is a parliamentary-presidential republic, Zelensky first met with the Prime Minister of Poland, Donald Tusk, in Warsaw. At a joint press conference with the Ukrainian president, Mr. Tusk primarily spoke out against using historical issues for political games, emphasizing that Kyiv and Warsaw find "common ground and methods of joint action when it comes to the issues of the Volhynian tragedy and other sensitive, dramatic matters of our history."

Recall that on January 10, Tusk announced that a decision had been made regarding the first exhumations of Polish victims of the Volhynian tragedy in Ukraine, without providing any details. Andrzej Duda, following his meeting with Zelensky, advocated for resolving historical contradictions, particularly the events in Volhynia, in a calm and constructive manner: “This is not a new topic; we have been discussing this with the president (Zelensky - ed.) for a long time, and it is calm and constructive. It is no secret that this is a difficult topic that needs to be addressed calmly.”

Volodymyr Zelensky himself stated that he hopes for a swift resolution of historical disputes with Poland, as both countries must be united against a common enemy in the form of Putin's Russia.

Right after the meeting with Zelensky, both Tusk and Duda commented on Ukraine’s European and Euro-Atlantic integration, fully supporting the admission of our country into NATO and the EU. Moreover, the Polish president stated that member states of the Alliance should immediately invite Ukraine into this military-political club: “After the onset of the full-scale Russian invasion, I insist that NATO countries formally invite Ukraine to membership. This would be the first step towards providing real security guarantees from the North Atlantic Alliance.” Separately, Mr. Duda emphasized that more and more NATO leaders lean towards the necessity of extending an invitation to Ukraine.

At the same time, the presidential candidate from Duda's political camp, Karol Nawrocki, noted that he does not yet see Ukraine in the EU and NATO "until historical contradictions are resolved." However, the Mayor of Warsaw and candidate for the presidency from Tusk's party, Rafał Trzaskowski, supported Ukraine's membership in the EU and NATO.

Volodymyr Zelensky has already responded to Nawrocki's position. “If Ukraine is not in the EU and not in NATO, if Ukraine has no security guarantees, then Mr. Nawrocki should start training, because it may happen that he will have to take up arms with his fellow countrymen to defend his country,” emphasized Zelensky during his communication with Polish journalists. Stressing that if Ukraine fails, the risk of war in Poland will be extremely high, Zelensky concluded: “Immediately after Ukraine, Russia will be at the border with Poland, and then he (Nawrocki - ed.) will not be engaged in political struggle, but will be fighting for his life.”

By the way, according to Bloomberg, one of the main conditions for Russia in negotiations to end the war against Ukraine is Kyiv's final refusal to join NATO. In particular, agency sources claim that the aggressor country will demand that Ukraine declare neutrality and limit its army during possible negotiations with Donald Trump to end the war.

Let’s return, however, to our neighbors. As mentioned above, on the day of Zelensky's visit, Poland officially began its presidential election campaign. About ten candidates have already expressed their desire to compete for the head of state, but the main battle is expected to unfold between the previously mentioned candidates Rafał Trzaskowski and Karol Nawrocki.

According to a recent poll by Opinia24, the leader of the race is Rafał Trzaskowski, the candidate from the "Civic Platform," with a support level of 29.8%. In second place is Karol Nawrocki, the head of the National Remembrance Institute, supported by the "Law and Justice" (PiS) party, garnering 22.6%. In third place is the leader of the far-right "Confederation" party, Sławomir Mentzen, with 13.3%, and in fourth is the Speaker of the Sejm, Szymon Hołownia, with 7.2%. Rounding out the top five in the 2025 election race is the deputy speaker of the Senate, Magdalena Biejat from the "Left" party, whose electoral support currently stands at 3.9%.

It is quite telling that Mr. Trzaskowski's current leading position has not brought much joy to the "Civic Platform," as compared to the previous poll conducted in December 2024 by the same company, his electoral support has literally collapsed from 38.6%. Nawrocki's support has also decreased, albeit not as significantly – only by 0.7%.

The fall in the mayor of Warsaw's rating had to be commented on by Donald Tusk the day before. According to the Polish Prime Minister, Rafał Trzaskowski's figures were initially “very promising,” but no one “harbored illusions that this would last until the end of the election.” Overall, Mr. Tusk expressed confidence that a second round will be required to determine the new head of state, in which Karol Nawrocki and Rafał Trzaskowski will compete. “Rafał Trzaskowski's leadership will remain, but it is by no means guaranteed; we will have to truly fight,” concluded the Polish Prime Minister.

In this context, it should be noted that the current President of Poland, Andrzej Duda, won in both 2015 and 2020 precisely in the second round, and both times against candidates from the "Civic Platform." Notably, five years ago, Mr. Duda defeated the same Rafał Trzaskowski. However, at that time, the mayor of Warsaw was in second place in the race, not first, as he is now.

Despite the fact that the battle for the keys to the presidential office in Poland has just officially begun, top candidates have already outlined the main items on their campaign menu. One of the key topics has been Ukraine. For example, Karol Nawrocki, as the head of the National Remembrance Institute, emphasizes history. “A country (Ukraine - ed.) that cannot answer for a very brutal crime against 120,000 of its neighbors (referring to the Volhynian tragedy of 1943 - ed.) cannot be part of international alliances,” Nawrocki repeats like a mantra, cynically playing on historical strings without any notes.

Considering the importance of this topic in Polish society, the "Civic Platform" is also trying not to remain on the sidelines of this thematic case. Thus, at the end of 2024, an agreement was reached between the foreign ministries of the two countries to begin the process of exhuming the bodies of the victims of the Volhynian tragedy in 2025. This moment, apparently, upset Karol Nawrocki, who called the agreements between Foreign Ministers Andriy Sybiha and Radosław Sikorski a “diplomatic trick.” “Ukraine has promised something like this before, but has done nothing!” exclaimed the PiS candidate.

Meanwhile, Donald Tusk stated on social media platform X: “Finally a breakthrough. A decision has been made regarding the first exhumations of Polish victims.” According to experts, if real steps are taken in this direction, it could well lead to Rafał Trzaskowski's victory, as it would strip Karol Nawrocki of a key historical trump card.

By the way, at the joint briefing with Zelensky, Polish Prime Minister Tusk (and Warsaw has been presiding over the European Council since January 1, taking over from Hungary) stated: “I will not allow anyone to use historical moments as a bargaining chip in the question of Ukraine's European future. This is also in Poland's interest. Anyone who does not understand this is either a fool or a traitor.”

It is quite evident that these words from Donald Tusk were directed specifically at Nawrocki, who is indeed trying to cynically speculate, throwing historical pages and Ukraine's Euro-Atlantic future into the same pot, which today effectively serves as a donor of security for Eastern Europe, and primarily for Poland.