NATO is moving closer: Will Biden truly approve Ukraine's invitation?

According to a report from the French newspaper Le Monde over the past weekend, citing sources in European diplomacy, if Kamala Harris wins the presidential election, outgoing President Joe Biden may give the green light for Kyiv's path to NATO. The publication states that the U.S. "no longer has principled objections" to Ukraine joining the military alliance, although Germany still opposes it. It is also reported that Mr. Biden will be able to act more decisively in this direction during his transition period – after determining the election winner until his inauguration in January 2025. A source for the newspaper emphasized that if Trump wins the election, nothing will come of it, and "any initiative from Biden risks only worsening the situation." At the same time, the U.S. decision regarding Ukraine-NATO "could help persuade the German government," the Le Monde interlocutor concluded. As is known, inviting Ukraine to NATO is the first of five points in the “victory plan” recently presented by President Zelensky in the Verkhovna Rada.

It is important to note that the emergence of publications in the Western press indicating a possible "thaw" in Washington's stance on Ukraine's Euro-Atlantic prospects preceded Biden's visit to Europe. In particular, the U.S. president visited Germany, likely for his last visit in his current role.

The current occupant of the White House arrived in the German capital late on October 17. Initially, the trip was scheduled for a week earlier, with a summit of the contact group for military assistance to Ukraine (the "Ramstein" format) planned as the central event. However, Hurricane Milton, which threatened serious destruction in Florida, disrupted all plans: Biden decided to stay in Washington, resulting in the summit being postponed. The event will take place in November, in a virtual rather than a real format.

However, let's return to the European trip of the American leader, which took place in turbo mode. Due to the brevity of Mr. Biden's visit to Berlin – less than a day – many events, including an official state dinner, had to be canceled. Meanwhile, the German authorities still found a way to express their respect to the high guest from the U.S. Specifically, German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier received him at his residence in Bellevue Palace. There, the 46th president of the United States was ceremoniously awarded the Grand Cross of the Order of Merit of the Federal Republic of Germany. It is worth noting that Joe Biden became the second U.S. president after George H.W. Bush to receive this highest award from Germany. "The German authorities are grateful to Joe Biden for his efforts to restore the alliance, which suffered during the four years of Republican Donald Trump's presidency (2017-2021). Just a few years ago, the distance between the U.S. and Europe was so great that we nearly lost each other. When you were elected president, you literally restored hope for a transatlantic alliance to Europe overnight," emphasized Steinmeier, addressing Joe Biden. He added: "Friendship with the U.S. is vital for Germany. We are partners and friends." In turn, the German Chancellor also expressed his gratitude towards the current occupant of the Oval Office. Olaf Scholz stated that Joe Biden achieved "incredible improvement in cooperation over recent years."

It is no secret that the partnership between Washington and Berlin plays a particularly important role in the context of supporting Ukraine. This case was a key focus during Joe Biden's recent meetings in the German capital. "America and Germany are the two largest supporters of Ukraine in its fight for survival," Mr. Biden told reporters before his negotiations with Chancellor Scholz. He acknowledged that our country is facing a "harsh winter," so Washington and Berlin must continue to provide assistance to Kyiv. "Today, the Chancellor and I discussed expanding support for the Ukrainian military, protecting energy infrastructure, and how to facilitate Ukraine's recovery through frozen Russian assets," said the head of the White House. After discussing the outlined topics in a bilateral format, Joe Biden and Olaf Scholz then held a meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer. Among other things, the allies discussed the aforementioned "victory plan" of Zelensky. The participants of the situational political quartet did not publicly comment on this topic, ignoring questions shouted by journalists during the press appearance of Joe Biden and Olaf Scholz. The latter only indicated that NATO is not and should not be a party to the conflict – otherwise "this war will lead to even greater catastrophe."

It is quite telling that, while speaking with reporters aboard the presidential plane en route to Berlin, White House National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan dismissed the idea that Joe Biden's visit aimed to "shield" U.S. foreign policy from potential negative influences by Donald Trump. He also noted: "The President is trying to make our commitments to Ukraine sustainable, institutionalized, and long-term focused."

Meanwhile, a meeting of NATO defense ministers recently took place in Brussels, where the Ukrainian issue was also a central topic. For the first time, Australia, New Zealand, South Korea, and Japan participated in the rendezvous. At the previous three summits, representatives from these countries were only guests. Politico reports that the Alliance aims to strengthen relations with like-minded countries in the Asia-Pacific region. The reason for this is the growing threat from China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea, whose cooperation is becoming closer. NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte described cooperation with the new summit participants as positive and expressed confidence that the Alliance would not lose its unity when it comes to assisting Kyiv. However, the EU and G7 plan for long-term financing of the Ukrainian military and recovery efforts remains in limbo, CNN emphasizes. The NATO initiative to assist Ukraine in security and training is also not fully operational. The channel does not report on the reasons, only predicting that the issue is unlikely to be resolved by the end of 2024.

Participants in the NATO ministerial meeting also stated that they want to see more activity from Europe in terms of providing aid to Ukraine and oppose placing all the burden on the U.S. The Alliance defense ministers reacted "very cautiously" to Vladimir Zelensky's "victory plan," which, as we noted above, includes Ukraine's accession to NATO, according to The Washington Post.

Today, it is extremely important for the West to demonstrate that NATO is an alliance of resolute, not fearful members, believes Anna Hopko, the former chair of the foreign affairs committee of the previous convocation of the Verkhovna Rada.

"Currently, a lot of non-public work is actually taking place. Conversations about providing Ukraine this invitation (to NATO – ed.) as a window of opportunity before Biden completes his term are indeed ongoing. Therefore, regardless of any pessimistic statements, discussions continue, and much depends on the position of the White House. At closed meetings in NATO, we were told directly: if there is a decision from President Biden, then other countries will support it and even find arguments for those who always oppose Ukraine," notes Ms. Hopko, who has just returned from a working trip to Brussels.