Dangerous "appetites": what Trump's statements about Greenland's annexation could lead to.

To give a preview, it's worth noting that the act regarding the "purchase" of Greenland by the U.S. has yet to gain significant support among American lawmakers. However, the controversial narrative surrounding President Donald Trump's plans to incorporate the world's largest island into the U.S. is taking on a more realistic shape.

Reuters has obtained a copy of a bill recently drafted by Republicans in the House of Representatives aimed at supporting Mr. Trump's efforts to purchase Greenland from Denmark. The name chosen for this act is quite eloquent – "Make Greenland Great Again," replacing only the word "America" in Trump's key slogan. Meanwhile, allies of the old-new President of the United States are still gathering support for this bill, which aims to "authorize the president to negotiate with the Kingdom of Denmark starting at 12:01 PM Eastern Time on January 20, 2025, to secure the acquisition of Greenland by the United States."

In the meantime, Greenland's Prime Minister Múte Egede stated: "We need to remain calm, use the situation to our advantage, and stick together." Egede, who has openly raised the issue of seeking independence from Denmark amid Trump's "Greenland" activity, insists that the island's residents do not wish to be Danish or American.

Meanwhile, the debut social survey on this case presents a somewhat different picture. Data from Patriot Polling, published on January 13, indicate that 57.3% of Greenland's residents support joining the U.S. Opposing this move are 37.4%, while 5.3% remain undecided. It is important to emphasize that the survey included 416 respondents, whereas the island's population is at least 57,000, with nearly 20,000 living in the regional capital, Nuuk.

Leading American media outlets note that the survey results somewhat bolster Trump's position regarding plans to acquire Greenland. However, as the New York Post emphasizes, caution should be taken with the Patriot Polling study: in the ranking of polling companies compiled by FiveThirtyEight, this service ranks only 249th out of 282, and until now, Patriot Polling has never conducted surveys outside the United States.

For a clearer picture, it's important to note that Greenland is the largest island in the world located in the North Atlantic off the coast of North America. It is bordered by the Atlantic and Arctic Oceans. Its area is 2.1 million square kilometers, approximately 50 times larger than Denmark (around 43,000 square kilometers). The island has significant reserves of gold, diamonds, uranium, and rare earth metals used in electronic devices. According to the latest data from the World Bank, Greenland's GDP in 2021 was $3.24 billion. Meanwhile, GDP per capita reaches $57,116 – roughly on par with France, the United Kingdom, and Italy, but lower than that of Denmark ($77,953).

Since 1953, Greenland has held the status of an autonomous territory within Denmark, but it has its own government and other authorities. Denmark controls foreign policy and defense, and the Danish krone is the official currency. Greenland is not part of the EU but has the status of an associated member of the community with some customs privileges. In April 1941, the Danish government in exile signed a defense agreement with the U.S., under which American radio stations, radars, airstrips, and other facilities were established in Greenland to protect convoys in the North Atlantic. In April 1951, a new agreement was reached, leading to the construction of the Thule Air Base (now known as the Pituffik Space Base) in 1951-1952. This is the northernmost U.S. military base, which houses the 12th Space Warning Squadron, responsible for managing the early warning system for ballistic missile detection.

In Denmark, the ongoing developments regarding Greenland are being monitored with barely concealed tension. Notably, the kingdom's Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen recently stated that she would like to preserve the integrity of the state but expressed understanding for Greenland's desire for independence. In turn, Denmark's Foreign Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen acknowledged the American concerns regarding security in the Arctic and expressed Copenhagen's willingness to negotiate with Donald Trump alongside Greenland to ensure "legitimate American interests."

Previously, Trump did not rule out the use of military force to gain control over Greenland. However, no one considers a serious invasion by U.S. troops, a NATO member, of an island belonging to another NATO member to be realistic. Moreover, as elected Vice President J.D. Vance pointed out, the U.S. already has "troops in Greenland" at the military base in the northwest of the island. This refers to the aforementioned Pituffik Space Base, which is responsible for managing the early warning system for ballistic missile launches. Considering that Greenland provides the shortest route from Europe to North America, this facility holds particular value for the U.S.

"The new American President Trump openly declares his claims or zones of influence in Greenland, Mexico, Panama, and Canada. So why not start with resolving an old American problem that has embarrassed the U.S. for 60 years – Fidel Castro's Cuba? Cuba is much closer and easier than Greenland or Canada. In fact, Cuba is already ripe for 'restructuring' and secondary Americanization, and will likely not offer much resistance. Furthermore, Trump could find numerous semi-empty 'concentration camps' on Cuba, built half a century ago by Castro for opponents of the Cuban dictatorship, where he could place many illegal migrants from South America deported from the U.S.," notes political scientist Viktor Nebozhenko.

"The idea of acquiring Greenland did not arise by chance. The island has strategic importance in terms of controlling the Arctic and important natural resources such as oil and gas. The Arctic route, opening due to global warming, also holds significant economic prospects. A military base in Greenland could become a vital link in defense against Russia and China, especially in light of rising tensions in the northern latitudes. Although the U.S. has a military presence in Greenland (Thule Air Base), this is not a permanent U.S. base but rather a shared facility for strategic purposes within NATO," notes political scientist Igor Petrenko.

Emphasizing that in this context, it is particularly important how Trump's statements may affect U.S. relations with the European Union, the expert stated: "As the French Foreign Minister noted, 'the EU will not allow Trump to invade Danish territory in Greenland.' This underscores that the EU and its members are ready to firmly defend the sovereignty of countries that are part of their strategic interest. The revival of American claims to Greenland could be perceived as a direct violation of international norms, provoking a harsh diplomatic response from the EU, as well as support for Denmark in this context. Such developments could further exacerbate relations between the U.S. and the EU, especially under the current geopolitical situation. The implementation of these plans could weaken the unity of Western alliances. Russia seeks to create a rift among Western allies, and Trump's statements may only contribute to this. The Kremlin actively seizes any opportunity to sow distrust among NATO and EU leaders, and maneuvers like these could be beneficial for achieving that goal. Regardless, this is an extremely troubling situation... Because instead of returning to the rules of the game, Trump prefers to play the game of those who broke them."

In light of all the above, Igor Petrenko suggests that Mr. Trump is attempting to bring his vision of global leadership to the forefront, "and all these statements may merely be attempts to draw attention to the importance of rethinking the role of the U.S. on the world stage."