Nautical slap: how the civilized world confronts Putin's Russia at sea.

The new NATO mission, which will involve frigates and naval aviation, has been named "Baltic Watch," announced the Alliance's Secretary General Mark Rutte at a press conference in Helsinki on January 12. He did not specify the exact number of ships that will be involved in the operation. "The number may vary from week to week. We do not want to make the enemy more informed than they already are. What is important is that we will bring the necessary military tools to the right place at the right time to deter harmful actions," Mr. Rutte explained.

Who exactly is considered an enemy by NATO at the moment is an open secret. Shortly before the summit organized by Finnish President Alexander Stubb and Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas, several Western media reported that topics such as strengthening NATO's presence in the Baltic Sea and specifically combating the Russian shadow fleet would be on the agenda.

NATO's maritime "awareness" was prompted by an incident that occurred at the end of December 2024. At that time, Estonia damaged the Estlink 2 undersea power cable between Finland, along with four communication cables connecting Finland with Estonia and Germany. In the immediate aftermath of the incident, Finland confiscated the tanker Eagle S, registered in the Cook Islands (whose anchor allegedly damaged the cable), which is linked to Russia's shadow fleet. Moreover, as stated by the Finnish National Bureau of Investigation, those aboard the vessel intended to cut the second power cable, Estlink 1, and the Balticconnector gas pipeline between Finland and Estonia at the time of the seizure. Against this backdrop, the initiative arose to discuss face to face how to protect critical underwater infrastructure and to show Russia that such incidents will be met with decisive responses not only from individual countries but also from all NATO member states.

It is quite noteworthy that besides NATO's Secretary General, the meeting in Helsinki included the Prime Ministers of Denmark, Mette Frederiksen; Poland, Donald Tusk; and Sweden, Ulf Kristersson; as well as the Chancellor of Germany, Olaf Scholz, and the Presidents of Latvia and Lithuania, Edgars Rinkēvičs and Gitanas Nausėda. This means the meeting took place at the highest level, indicating, at the very least, the seriousness of intentions. Additionally, preparations to increase NATO's presence in the Baltic Sea have already begun. Recently, Finnish Foreign Minister Elina Valtonen announced that NATO would send two ships to the Baltic Sea, and soon Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson emphasized that his country would send three ships and a reconnaissance aircraft to protect the underwater cables in the Baltic Sea as part of NATO's operation. Furthermore, the Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF), which includes the UK, Nordic and Baltic countries, as well as the Netherlands, announced the activation of a response system to track the shadow fleet of the aggressor country, Russia. On top of all this, neighboring Poland will provide four ships for NATO's Baltic Sea patrol mission.

In addition to increasing the number of patrolling ships in the Baltic Sea, NATO has indicated its readiness to strengthen cooperation with private companies engaged in cutting-edge technologies for more effective monitoring of suspicious vessels. "There will be the latest technologies, including drones," promised Secretary General Mark Rutte.

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, in turn, emphasized: "We will work together on legal solutions that will allow us to monitor vessels even beyond territorial waters." As a source in the domestic Foreign Ministry told Lenta.UA, NATO member states may soon introduce legislative norms that would allow them to stop for inspection and even arrest foreign vessels that they believe may be linked to Russia's shadow fleet. The interlocutor described such a potential decision as groundbreaking and unprecedented, as "the still-active 1982 UN Convention on the Law of the Sea does not provide for any restrictions on freedom of navigation based on individual considerations." "The criminal actions of the Russian regime push the civilized world to seek adequate measures to the situation, in this case, at sea. For us, this is undoubtedly a significant advantage, as all these decisions, one way or another, hit the Russian economy and, consequently, its ability to continue the war against Ukraine," the source concluded.

Meanwhile, off the coasts of China, Singapore, and Russia, dozens of tankers carrying Russian oil are drifting or anchored away from port. This occurred after the United States imposed sanctions on the Russian oil sector last Friday, January 10, the most severe since the onset of the full-scale war. These sanctions affected the Russian "shadow fleet" as well as the companies that facilitated its operation. In total, these sanctions impacted over 180 vessels. Analysts from S&P Global estimated the Russian shadow fleet at 591 tankers in the autumn of 2024.

According to an analysis by Reuters, based on data from MarineTraffic and LSEG, at least 65 oil tankers are currently anchored in various locations. The majority of them are located off the coast of the aggressor country: in the Baltic Sea and the Far East. Five tankers are anchored near ports in China, and another seven are off the coast of Singapore. Notably, 25 of the stranded vessels had previously been in ports in Iran and near the Suez Canal. At the same time, according to Bloomberg, three vessels – Olia, Mermar, and Huihai Pacific – are stuck approaching ports in China's Shandong province. They were carrying about two million barrels of oil from the Russian Pacific port of Kozmino. This happened due to a ban by the Chinese port operator Shandong Port Group on allowing vessels under sanctions to dock in its ports. Additionally, it was recently reported that ports in India will also close to vessels carrying Russian oil. As Bloomberg writes, the country is ready to unload ships chartered before January 10, provided they unload by March 12. Furthermore, Indian banks will require certificates of origin for the oil to exclude supplies from sanctioned companies.

It is important to emphasize that in 2022, the introduction of the embargo and "price cap" indeed had an effect: prices for Russian oil fell below $60 per barrel, as did the budget revenues of the aggressor country from its sale. At that time, Putin frantically sought ways to circumvent the restrictions, and a key method became the shadow fleet. In particular, Russia purchased old tankers that began transporting its oil to bypass sanctions. Russian black gold was often sold through a chain of various traders to conceal its origin. Now, however, a significant portion of these "intermediaries" has been placed on sanctions lists, as have the insurance companies that worked with them.

As CNN notes, the current sanctions have effectively struck at the existing oil supply chain, as, among other things, buyers fear dealing with the shadow fleet tankers due to the threat of secondary sanctions. Due to the new sanctions, the network expects a reduction in Russian exports by 15-35%. In the current situation, Russia will have to purchase new tankers or lower the price of its oil.

Overall, as we can see, the trend is positive for us, but there is at least one "but." "There are vessels that, for example, belong to Russia. They sail under the Russian flag and are owned by Russian companies or even state enterprises. In particular, this concerns the tankers "Volgoneft-212" and "Volgoneft-239," which sank in the Black Sea on December 15, 2024, causing a massive ecological disaster. Many tankers involved in transshipments, helping Russians earn and circumvent sanctions, have ultimate beneficiaries in third countries. And in countries that are quite civilized, in fact," said Dmitry Pletenchuk, spokesman for the Ukrainian Navy, during a recent telethon about the hidden sanction-circumvention pitfalls.