Will Tusk's shine fade? The significance of the Polish Prime Minister's visit to Ukraine is crucial for various reasons.

During a joint press conference with the Ukrainian president in Lviv, Donald Tusk highlighted the progress made in historical issues concerning Polish-Ukrainian relations. The topic of the events in Volhynia from 1943-1945, referred to as the Volhynian Tragedy in Ukrainian historiography and the Volhynian Massacre in Polish, remains a point of contention between the two countries. At the end of November, the foreign ministers of Ukraine and Poland, Andriy Sybiga and Radoslaw Sikorski, signed a joint statement regarding the exhumation of victims of the Volhynian tragedy.

It is expected that the Polish side will continue to raise historical questions, especially with presidential elections approaching in Poland at the end of the first half of 2025, as this topic is particularly relevant and significant in Poland. We will return to the presidential elections later, but for now, let us focus on Mr. Tusk's current visit to Ukraine, where he announced a new aid package in Lviv. He emphasized that the 46th aid package from Warsaw would be ready in January and added that Poland would likely prepare to send Ukraine "some equipment" in collaboration with other partners. The Polish Prime Minister did not provide further details. He also stated that Poland, in a sense, is a "frontline state," and therefore cannot transfer all its weapons to Ukraine. "Poland is increasingly becoming a target for diversions, sabotage, and hybrid actions directed specifically against our citizens and our state," Donald Tusk argued.

At the same time, he expressed gratitude to Ukrainian heroes and veterans for their readiness to defend not only Ukraine but also Poland and all of Europe: "I am convinced that more and more people around the world understand that the mission of every civilized nation is to support Ukraine in this heroic battle today. The struggle of Ukrainians against Russia is part of a larger civilizational clash, and Ukraine can always count on Poland. Commitment to Ukraine is also about protecting Poland and Europe as a whole from hostile actions by Russia, which are no longer aimed solely at Ukraine."

The Polish Prime Minister also called for an end to speculations about a potential defeat for Ukraine. "We all, without exception, must support Ukraine now more than ever before, for the peace that we all await - no one wants peace more than Ukraine, we know this. And in the EU, no one wants peace more than Poland, for similar reasons," Mr. Tusk said. He specifically emphasized that such peace will only be possible when it is just, and it will be just when the entire Western world focuses its efforts on this.

President Zelensky, for his part, noted the following: "I am pleased to welcome the Prime Minister of Poland, Donald Tusk, to Ukraine. We had a very productive conversation. Our relations are stable in these challenging times. We discussed in detail the situation on the battlefield and in diplomacy - we see eye to eye that Ukraine needs a just peace, Ukraine needs to be strong and needs reinforcement. I am grateful for Poland's readiness to help and for the support already provided to Ukraine since the first days of the full-scale war. The 45th military support package is already being implemented - thank you! Next year, Poland will hold the presidency of the Council of the European Union, and this presidency may bring us good results in approaching EU membership."

Indeed, it is quite symbolic that Mr. Tusk's visit to Lviv coincided with the ceremony of transferring the presidency of the EU from Hungary to Poland. Against the backdrop of scandals preceding the transition of the now-ending six-month EU presidency to Hungary (some countries even seriously attempted to cancel it), the transfer of command functions from Budapest to Warsaw could have been considered a routine event. However, there are several important "buts." First, the European governance of neighboring Poland coincided with the moment when the European government, formed after the June elections to the European Parliament (EP), finally began to fulfill its duties. This made it possible for Warsaw to propose new initiatives without fear that they might be "frozen" for a long time - as was the case throughout the period of the Hungarian presidency. Second, it is during Poland's presidency that the newly elected U.S. President Donald Trump will take office, with his inauguration set for January 20. Based on his actions during his first term, the next occupant of the Oval Office is not expected to bring anything good to Europe. Trump has already promised Europe new trade tariffs and potential cuts in American aid to Ukraine. Third, during the Polish presidency, the world will mark the third anniversary of the start of the full-scale Russian-Ukrainian war.

In this context, it is only natural that Poland has made security issues in all their aspects - whether in energy, defense, or economic security - a priority for its presidency. "What do people want? What are people looking for? They are looking for security, and this will be the key motive of the presidency," outlined Warsaw's priorities Polish Ambassador to the EU, Agnieszka Bartol. She also announced that Poland would put forward proposals for protecting Europe's borders, cybersecurity, combating foreign interference and disinformation, as well as ideas for strengthening the defense industry of the bloc. It is worth noting that in 2023, defense spending in the EU reached a record €279 billion. However, after many years of underfunding the defense industry, additional and substantial funds will be needed to close the gaps in investments for new projects, such as the European air defense shield. In this regard, Poland will have to not only propose thematic initiatives but also actively persuade those EU countries that have always been inclined to economize in this area to invest more in defense needs.

Considering that, as noted above, Poland's presidency will coincide with the third anniversary of the start of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, preparing for a new sanctions package against the aggressor country in February also falls on Warsaw's short list of tasks. Unlike Hungary, whose Prime Minister Orban consistently opposed the sanctions policy against Putin's Russia, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has always been among the main anti-Russian "hawks" and the most ardent supporters of assistance to our country. According to various leaks in Western media, Warsaw is already considering options such as restricting the movement of Russian diplomats in the Schengen zone and sanctions against the supply of aluminum from Russia.

Another important track for the Euro camp is developing a common defense strategy in response to potential additional trade tariffs from the Trump administration. Moreover, Europeans are particularly alarmed by the announced tariff increases on all Chinese exports to the U.S. by the leading Republican, as the trade war between the two leading economies in the world will inevitably have a negative impact on trade affairs in the EU. In the coming months, Brussels will need to resolve its own bilateral dispute with the United States. In 2018, it should be recalled, during his first term, Trump imposed tariffs on the import of steel and aluminum products from the EU - 25% and 10%, respectively. In response, the EU initiated "rebalancing" tariffs on various goods imported from the U.S. Under Joe Biden, the parties agreed to mutually suspend these measures until a mutually acceptable solution could be found, extending this suspension until March 31, 2025. Thus, it is on official Warsaw that the burden will fall to negotiate with the old-new U.S. president on what to do after the expiration of this trade truce.

In seeking to morally support Ukraine in its struggle against Putin's Russia, including through sanctions, Warsaw will also need to address another very delicate issue related to assisting Kyiv. As is known, after the beginning of the full-scale war, our country was granted the right to import its goods into the EU duty-free. As a result, relatively inexpensive Ukrainian agricultural products flooded the markets of EU countries, provoking mass protests from local farmers, including Polish ones. At the beginning of June, just as Poland's EU presidency was coming to an end, the period for such special trade measures from the EU regarding Ukraine will expire. Therefore, it will be up to the authorities of neighboring Poland to find a balance between the desire not to let Ukraine down and their own economic and political interests. Why political? Because, as mentioned above, Poland is facing presidential elections in 2025, which means that the country will inevitably be shaken by campaign-manipulative "dances," where public sentiment and expectations will play a leading role. By the way, regarding these sentiments, more than half of the Polish population, for the first time since the beginning of Putin's "special operation," supported the opinion that the war in Ukraine should end, even if it means giving up part of its territory or independence. This is evidenced by a survey conducted by the Polish Center for Public Opinion Research (CBOS) published on Tuesday, December 17.

Currently, 55% of respondents hold this opinion, while in September 2024, only 39% supported it, and in April 2022, only 26%. Only 31% of Poles believe that Ukraine should continue fighting without any concessions to Russia (in September 2024, this was 46%, and in April 2022, 59%). As indicated by CBOS, at various stages of the full-scale war, there has always been a prevailing belief among Poles that Ukrainians (with Western support) should continue fighting and not make any concessions to the aggressor country. However, as noted in the study, this percentage has steadily decreased since the beginning of the second year of the full-scale war in Ukraine, and over the past three months, it has fallen by another ten percentage points.

At the same time, recent polls