Ruble below the belt: what signals is Trump sending to Putin?

Recently, during his speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, Vladimir Zelensky stated that Kyiv aims to end the full-scale war unleashed by Putin's Russia by 2025. “Trump told me he would do everything to end the war this year. I told him that we are your partner... We want to end the war this year. But not just quickly, but reliably,” emphasized the current host of Bankova.

He also reaffirmed the desire to achieve peace through diplomatic means but added that it should not be mere “words”: “If after this diplomacy there are strong security guarantees that make it impossible for Putin to return with war, then it will be a lasting peace. But if there are weak security guarantees and only words, then you will receive only words from Russia, and they will return with war and an army ten times larger.”

According to Zelensky, it is extremely important today for Europe and the U.S. to be united and provide more assistance to Ukraine because Putin is ramping up arms production. In this context, Zelensky proposed that European countries and Ukraine jointly produce air defense systems to protect against all types of ballistic missiles. In the opinion of the current guarantor of the Ukrainian Constitution, Europe needs its own version of the “Iron Dome.”

Overall, discussing Europe's ability to confront challenges, the current host of Bankova provided the following figures: Russia can deploy 1.5 million soldiers, while the Ukrainian army has over 800,000 personnel. The troops in France number 200,000, followed by Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom.

“The other countries have smaller armies. So, this is not a situation where one country can ensure its own security alone. It is about all of us standing together to make a difference. There is no ocean separating Europe from Russia… Battles with North Korean soldiers are occurring much closer to Davos than to Pyongyang. Will President Trump listen to Europe? Will President Trump notice Europe? Washington does not believe that Europe can offer them anything significant,” summarized Vladimir Zelensky.

Meanwhile, David Arakhamia, the leader of the pro-presidential faction in the Verkhovna Rada, stated that negotiations between Ukrainian representatives and Donald Trump's team may soon take place in the U.S. capital. “In early February, there will be a 'Ukrainian week' in Washington. I think that main processes and negotiations with Trump’s new team will take place there, so we are waiting. In a few weeks, we will have all the necessary news,” emphasized the leader of the parliamentary “servants.”

Trump himself has also spoken extensively about the war in recent days. In particular, urging Russia to end the conflict, the old-new occupant of the Oval Office threatened to impose sanctions and tariffs on all Russian exports to the U.S. “I am going to do a great service to Russia, whose economy is collapsing, and to President Putin. Calm down and stop this ridiculous war! It will only get worse,” wrote the leading Republican on the social network Truth Social.

At the same time, Trump added that he loves the Russian people and has a good relationship with Putin, but he believes that if Russia does not make a “deal” now, he will have “no choice” but to significantly tighten economic pressure. “There is an easy way and a hard way. The easy way is always preferable,” concluded the 47th President of the United States. The Wall Street Journal reports that he tasked special envoy for the Ukraine war, Keith Kellogg, with resolving the Russian-Ukrainian conflict within 100 days. Meanwhile, in Moscow, WSJ emphasizes, there has been no expression of interest in cooperating with General Kellogg. However, the publication claims that in Russia, it is believed that understanding between Trump and Putin “could lead to improved relations between the U.S. and Russia.”

However, for now, the statements appear increasingly similar to threats. During his speech in Davos, Trump stated that he would demand Saudi Arabia and OPEC to lower oil prices, including to exert pressure on Russia regarding Ukraine.

According to him, if the price of oil drops, the war in Ukraine will end.

As is known, right after his inauguration, Donald Trump stated that he wanted to meet with the Russian president soon. The Kremlin dictator, for his part, noted that Moscow is open to dialogue with the new U.S. administration. But later, he hinted several times that the problem lies in the Kremlin's position. At Davos, he stated directly: Kyiv is ready, Moscow is not.

It is quite noteworthy that almost simultaneously with Zelensky's speech in Davos, there was a report about a conversation between Putin and Chinese leader Xi Jinping. As stated in the swamps, the indicated parties agreed to cooperate with the U.S. and also to negotiate on “Ukrainian settlement if Trump's team shows reciprocal interest.”

“A not bad piece of news in Trump's assessment of the situation is that he is now confident that Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky is striving for an agreement to end the war and does not intend to lift the sanctions imposed against the Russian Federation by his predecessors. Thus, Trump intends to negotiate with Putin, keeping in his hands all the tools created to pressure the Russian dictator. But the question arises: how ready is Putin himself to speak this language? Ahead of Donald Trump's inauguration, the Russian president addressed the Security Council of the Russian Federation with demands that are unequivocally interpreted in the United States as an ultimatum to the new American president. That is, Putin is indeed ready to end the war, but precisely on the conditions he set back in 2022 when decisions were made to attack Ukraine. And these conditions leave no doubt that Putin seeks to establish full control over Ukraine and prevent not only its accession to the North Atlantic Alliance but also to turn it into a state incapable of overcoming future Russian aggression. But it is clear that Donald Trump is not the kind of person who agrees with the language of ultimatums,” notes well-known international journalist Vitaly Portnikov on his authorial YouTube channel.

And here, he is convinced, we find ourselves in quite a complicated situation: Trump believes that Putin needs a situation where he could exit the Russian-Ukrainian war while saving face and restoring the economy of the Russian Federation, while Putin primarily seeks to meet with Trump to demonstrate the complete failure of his isolation that the West attempted to impose after February 2022.

“And these differing goals with which the presidents of the United States and the Russian Federation approach their upcoming meeting doom the first Russian-American summit after the large-scale Russian attack on Ukraine to failure or, at the very least, to a lack of any concrete results. In this situation, the main thing is not even how much Trump is eager to meet with his Russian counterpart, but how long he is truly willing to maintain sanctions against the Russian Federation and intensify them. Well, and, of course, a lot will depend not only on Donald Trump's statements but also on the readiness to continue and increase American assistance to Ukraine. By the way, journalists asked the American president what he now thinks about his promises to end the war in 24 hours. And Trump, as always, mockingly said to those who believe his words, that he still has half a day left,” summarizes Vitaly Portnikov.

The first signals from the White House to the Kremlin have been evaluated rather skeptically by the team of the Ukrainian president. In particular, as noted in a conversation with Lenta.UA by a political scientist close to Bankova, Trump's appeal to Putin to end the war is essentially an ultimatum, “however, such an approach would make sense if rational people were in charge of Russia, capable of distinguishing what is beneficial for them and what leads to complete destruction.”

“Everything Putin has done in recent years clearly demonstrates that there is not a shred of rationality left in his head. It is clear that Mr. Trump's attempt to appeal to Putin's common sense is doomed to failure. Therefore, until there is another way to stop the war other than ensuring a military victory for Ukraine, we must do everything possible and impossible to convince the new U.S. power team and Trump, first and foremost, of the importance of continued military-financial support from Washington to Kyiv,” concludes the interlocutor, adding that in the presidential office “there is a clear and sober understanding of the situation.”