The leader of the first round of the presidential elections held last Sunday, November 24, in neighboring Romania, unexpectedly turned out to be someone who was considered an absolute outsider just a few weeks ago – the far-right politician Călin Georgescu, running as an independent candidate. Romanian media unanimously describe this political figure as pro-Russian, so it is evident that a potential victory for Mr. Georgescu in the second round, scheduled for December 8, is unlikely to please Ukraine, or Europe in general.
A small detail about his background. So, 62-year-old Călin Georgescu was a university professor for many years and dedicated about ten years to working in various UN structures, focusing on "sustainable development" issues. Until 2022, he was a member of the far-right "Alliance for the Union of Romanians" (AUR) and was even considered as a candidate for Prime Minister from this political force. Thus, as we can see, it is incorrect to label Georgescu as a political novice; however, he was not widely known to the general public, especially outside the country. Moreover, even in October, Călin Georgescu's name was not included in any candidate shortlists – for instance, the Inscop agency listed him under "others" with less than 0.4% support. In November, he occupied the sixth position in some rankings with 5.4% support.
Meanwhile, following the counting of the overwhelming majority of ballots cast in the first round of the presidential elections in Romania on November 24, Călin Georgescu emerged as the frontrunner. He garnered 22.94% of the votes, while his opponent, the pro-anti-Russian policy leader of the "Union for the Salvation of Romania," Elena Lasconi, received just over 19.18% of the votes. The incumbent Prime Minister and leader of the Social Democratic Party, Marcel Ciolacu, who was considered almost an uncontested favorite in the race until the last moment, settled for a mere third place (around 19%). Finally, the one who had been confidently predicted to take second place and advance to the second round – AUR leader George Simion – finished fourth with about 14% of the votes.
As noted by the Associated Press, the unexpected success of the far-right Georgescu was largely not so much due to his ideas (the campaign was primarily built around calls to reduce Romania's dependence on imports, support for farmers, and increase domestic production of food and energy) but rather due to the overall frustration of voters with all the other presidential candidates. "Key parties have lost touch with ordinary Romanians. There are no strong candidates or strong leaders... there are weak candidates, weak leaders, and parties that are generally quite fragmented," stated political scientist Cristian Andrei from Bucharest. This was essentially acknowledged by Georgescu himself, the finalist of the first round of the 2025 presidential election marathon. "35 years of economic uncertainty imposed on the Romanian people has now become uncertainty for political parties as well," noted Georgescu right after the polling stations closed. He referred to the results of the people's will as a "surprising awakening" of the Romanian people. However, a definitive understanding of how much Romanians have truly "awakened" will come on December 8 – the day of the second round of the presidential elections, when Georgescu will face the incumbent Prime Minister.
It is worth noting that in Romania, the president, elected for a five-year term, has quite broad powers, primarily in matters of foreign policy and security, and represents the country abroad. Therefore, it is clear how important our neighbors' choice is for us.
In a three-year-old interview, Călin Georgescu labeled NATO's missile defense shield in the Romanian town of Deveselu as a "shame of diplomacy," claiming that the North Atlantic Alliance would not protect any of its members in the event of a Russian attack. He has also systematically criticized military aid to Ukraine from the United States and publicly expressed admiration for Hungary and its Prime Minister Orban for their ability to conduct international negotiations and defend national interests. Georgescu has also stated that he is close to Russian culture and praised Putin as a person "who loves his country." Incidentally, there has already been a reaction from Moscow regarding the Romanian elections. In particular, Putin's spokesperson Peskov, in response to Russian journalists' questions about whether the election results were a surprise for the Kremlin and how they assess Georgescu's prospects of maintaining his advantage in the second round, stated: "It can't be said that we are very familiar with this candidate's worldview concerning relations with our side." He immediately added that for now, Moscow only understands that "the current leadership of Romania is not a friendly state for us."
"As one of my Romanian colleagues said, 'a black swan flew onto a frozen lake and performed a ballet.' The black swan of the Romanian presidential elections has become Georgescu – an independent candidate who unexpectedly burst into the group of leaders. He openly positions himself as far-right – brown, glorifying the period when Romania was an ally of the Nazis during the dictatorship of Antonescu, whom he considers a 'martyr,' and during the campaign relied mainly on TikTok as a platform to promote his ideas, criticizing NATO, the EU, and the presence of American bases in Romania. He also believes that Russia's war against Ukraine is a result of a conspiracy by American weapons manufacturers. It seems that most of the votes he received are from the protest electorate, who were dissatisfied with the activities of the large coalition of mainstream social democratic parties (the presidential candidate is the incumbent Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu) and national liberals (the candidate is former Prime Minister Nicolae Ciucă). And this entire protest electorate saw the word 'independent' on the ballot and voted for him," notes Sergey Gerasimchuk, director of the regional initiatives program at the Ukrainian Prism center.
At the same time, the analyst emphasizes that there is no "betrayal" yet, as "the likelihood of Călin Georgescu winning in the second round is minimal." "The Romanian deep state will fully engage all its mechanisms to prevent this. All conscious Romanians, and I believe they are the majority, will vote in the second round for anyone but Georgescu. 'Betrayal' would be Georgescu advancing to the second round alongside, say, Simion – the AUR leader. That would be not just a Romanian but an overall regional catastrophe. However, in general, the results of the first round are not just a worrying signal – they are a clarion call. While mainstream political forces intrigue and set elegant traps for each other, the 'dark passengers' of the electorate are gaining the upper hand over common sense and leading their leaders to victories. If Europe is facing a major war, then it is approaching it extremely weakened," concludes the expert.
Meanwhile, while Romanians are exhaling after the first electoral round, in neighboring Poland, where presidential elections will be held in May 2025, the campaign is rapidly gaining momentum. Last weekend, the ruling "Civic Coalition" summarized the results of the primaries, nominating popular Warsaw Mayor Rafał Trzaskowski as their candidate. If this politician wins, his party mate, incumbent Prime Minister Donald Tusk, will have a presidential ally who will not hinder the government's initiatives, as the current head of state Andrzej Duda sometimes does. The opposition camp has also determined its candidate – in the "Law and Justice" party, whose positions have strengthened following Donald Trump's victory in the USA. The elections will be contested by the director of the Polish Institute of National Remembrance (IPN), Karol Nawrocki. However, let's discuss everything, or rather everyone, in order.
So, 52-year-old Warsaw Mayor Rafał Trzaskowski was long considered the most obvious presidential candidate from the ruling coalition "Civic Coalition." However, not long ago, Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski decided to challenge his party mate, claiming that his extensive experience in security and defense matters makes him the best choice during the Russo-Ukrainian war on one hand and in light of political changes in the USA on the other. Mr. Trzaskowski, in turn, emphasized economic issues. "This campaign will focus on the quality of life, the Polish economy, Polish entrepreneurs, and Polish agriculture. These are the most important issues," stated the mayor of Warsaw. Judging by the results of Friday's primaries, such a strategy has proven effective. Mr. Trzaskowski secured about 75% of the votes from primary participants. Consequently, Prime Minister Donald Tusk ceremoniously announced the mayor of Warsaw as the "Civic Coalition" candidate for the elections in May of the upcoming year (the exact date has yet to be announced).
Rafał Trzaskowski ran for president in 2020 from the "Civic Coalition" but lost to the "Law and Justice" (PiS) candidate Andrzej Duda. Since November 2018, he has held the position of mayor of Warsaw. During his tenure, he has become known for his liberal stance on the LGBT community and has proven to be an active advocate for women's rights. Recently, he promised that as president, he would "fight to the end" for the repeal of the current almost complete ban on abortions, imposed during PiS's rule. By focusing on economic and other domestic issues, Rafał Trzaskowski has devoted very little attention to international affairs in his program. Nevertheless, it is clear that he aims to continue the current foreign policy course of Poland, including in terms of support for our country. Recently, he actively urged the Polish leadership to convince the incoming Trump administration that continued