"Shock Therapy": What the reaction of European allies reveals about Trump's conversation with Putin.

The phone conversation between Donald Trump and the Kremlin dictator Putin, which Lenta.UA reported in detail, has swiftly brought the issue of peaceful resolution of the Russian-Ukrainian war to the forefront of global political discourse. In Europe, the discussion between the American and Russian leaders elicited, to say the least, a mixed response. For instance, former Swedish Prime Minister Carl Bildt accused the U.S. of betrayal, comparing Trump's approach to the conflict to the "Munich Agreement." "This is certainly an innovative approach to negotiations – making significant concessions even before they begin," Mr. Bildt wrote on social media platform X. His assessment was prompted not only by the conversation between the leaders of the White House and the Kremlin but also by Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth's statement that Ukraine would not be able to reclaim lost territories through military means. Hegseth himself was quick to reassure that "there is no betrayal," but rather "an acknowledgment that the U.S. and the entire world are working towards peace through negotiations."

Given that statements regarding peaceful resolution are pouring from Trump's administration like a cornucopia, many European politicians have found themselves extremely concerned about the developments, even though they did not directly accuse Washington of betrayal. Foreign ministers from France, Germany, Poland, Italy, Spain, and the UK issued a joint statement. In it, they assured their readiness to "increase assistance to Ukraine" and to support its "independence, sovereignty, and territorial integrity." "Our common goal is to continue supporting Ukraine until a fair, comprehensive, and lasting peace is achieved," emphasized the European diplomats.

At the same time, EU foreign policy chief Kaia Kallas noted that allies must strengthen Ukraine and provide it with "security guarantees," and that "Europe must play a central role in any negotiations." German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock threw a stone in the American yard, stating that "peace can only be achieved through joint efforts – that is, with Ukraine and the Europeans." "For peace to return to Europe, we must walk this path together," the top German diplomat emphasized. Meanwhile, Dutch Defense Minister Ruben Brekelmans pointed out that "without the involvement of Europeans, negotiations on the security architecture in Europe are fundamentally impossible."

Meanwhile, several NATO defense ministers, including those from Sweden, Estonia, Canada, and the UK, stated that Ukraine must firmly participate in any peace negotiations. Thus, as we can see, the EU suspects Donald Trump of intending to exclude our country, as well as European allies, from the negotiation process with the aggressor nation and decided to immediately express their disagreement with such an approach. However, there were also those who, on the contrary, viewed the developments positively. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, following the recent meeting of defense ministers of Ukraine's allied countries in Brussels, refused to label the Trump-Putin conversation as "betrayal" and did not see it as an attempt to exclude Kyiv from the process.

Meanwhile, the conversation between the presidents of the U.S. and Russia has been recognized by most Western observers as a success for Putin. "The first meeting between Trump and Putin, likely to take place in Saudi Arabia, will be a one-on-one meeting, without Volodymyr Zelensky, which means a departure from the principle adhered to by the Biden administration: 'Do not discuss Ukraine without Ukraine'," notes the French Le Monde.

"President Biden did not want an agreement to be reached behind the victim's back. Trump, however, is completely discarding this collective approach, hostile to the aggressor. Kyiv had long feared that the new U.S. president might prefer negotiations directly with Putin, and now there is a risk that the further process will take place under Russia's dictation," the publication summarizes.

"Putin has long awaited direct contact with Washington regarding Ukraine's future, based on his belief that it is within Russia's sphere of influence, and that the West and NATO have merely used it. The recent call from the White House to the Kremlin vividly illustrates the strengthening alliance between Trump and Putin," emphasizes the Washington Post. The Polish Rzeczpospolita reflects on the possibility that Europe may have missed its chance by failing to reach an agreement on participation in a peacekeeping mission in Ukraine: "President Emmanuel Macron has long warned that if united Europe does not agree on a specific plan for its involvement in ending the war in Ukraine, starting with a peacekeeping mission, it will simply not be taken into account in peace negotiations, which will determine its own security. However, the French president has failed to convince almost anyone of his idea. In particular, Poland refused to participate in it. This could be a historic mistake. The conversation with Trump signifies the end of Putin's isolation. Everyone considered him a war criminal, and now he has proven to be an equal partner to a key global leader."

The New York Times directly labels the Trump-Putin conversation as a "great victory" for the Kremlin dictator, stating: "The phone call reinforced Putin's belief that the fate of Ukraine and other important issues will be determined by Moscow and Washington. This is a clear sign that Putin, despite Russia's catastrophic failures at the beginning of the invasion of Ukraine in early 2022, can still emerge from the war with a redefined map of Europe and increased Russian influence."

The scenario where the U.S. "abandons" Ukraine and its European partners, preferring to negotiate directly with Putin, is what Zelensky feared the most, appeals the Economist to an interview with the current owner of Bankova, published just before the phone call between Trump and Putin. The publication adds that the recent Trump-Putin conversation has caused "fear and horror" in Kyiv, as well as in European capitals. "I think everything will be decided without Ukraine," the Economist quotes an unnamed Ukrainian official. "Ukraine is in deep trouble. And Europe, by the way, is too."

Bloomberg, "dancing" around the Trump-Putin conversation, models three possible scenarios for the resolution of the Russian-Ukrainian war. Interestingly, according to agency sources, key allies of Ukraine were unaware of the call from the U.S. president to Putin until the last moment and were shocked by this fact. One of the interlocutors described it as a surrender of Ukraine and stated that the U.S. is conceding key demands from Putin even before negotiations begin.

However, let’s return to the scenarios of the likely finish of the infamous Putin's "special military operation." "The first – basic and likely scenario: in the near future, the occupied territory of Ukraine remains under the actual control of the Russian Federation. Some land exchanges, including occupied territories in the Kursk region, are not excluded. Ukraine will receive security guarantees but will not become a NATO member. If Europe maintains its connection with Washington, Ukraine will continue to receive assistance from the U.S. The second scenario – optimistic: the U.S. and European countries promise to intervene if Russia violates the terms of the peace agreement. However, due to the risk of direct confrontation with the Russian Federation, this scenario raises concerns even among the staunchest supporters of Ukraine. Allies may promise to tighten sanctions against Russia and continue supporting Kyiv, including in developing its own defense industry and reforming the Armed Forces of Ukraine. This will pave the way for Ukraine’s accession to the EU," writes Bloomberg.

As for the third "worst-case scenario," agency analysts believe it consists of Trump potentially losing interest in Ukraine's future and achieving a peaceful resolution: "In such a situation, U.S. military and financial assistance will cease, and Europe will have to solve this problem on its own. A peace agreement will preserve Ukraine's sovereignty, but Russia will gain significant benefits, particularly control over part of Ukrainian territory and blocking Kyiv's NATO membership. Meanwhile, the Baltic countries, which Putin views as part of the Russian Empire he wishes to restore, will likely become his next target."

According to Bloomberg's estimates, Ukraine will need to spend about $230 billion to restore buildings and infrastructure damaged during the full-scale war. "If Kyiv receives funding for this and manages to achieve long-term resolution, the energy, manufacturing, and construction sectors in Ukraine will grow rapidly. However, there is a shortfall of $130 billion between Ukraine's reconstruction needs and the financing promised by allies," Bloomberg concludes, emphasizing that this could jeopardize Ukraine's long-term sustainability.

The BBC's British bureau reports that the phone conversation between Trump and Putin "significantly reduces the temperature, but at the expense of Ukraine." "Events are evolving very quickly when it comes to efforts to end the war in Ukraine. Unfortunately for Kyiv, the reins of power are not in its hands. Trump wants a swift end to this war, even if it means forcing Ukraine to swallow some very, very bitter pills. He sees the war as a problem for Europe, which Europe must resolve on its own," the publication emphasizes.

Overall, many influential global media outlets believe that the conversation between Trump and Putin on the evening of February 12 has, on one hand, significantly weakened Ukraine's position at the yet-to-start de jure peace negotiations, and on the other hand, vividly demonstrated the failure of the West's efforts to diplomatically isolate the main Kremlin war criminal.

And the speech by U.S. Vice President Dee Jay Vance at the Munich Conference highlighted serious crisis moments in relations between Europe and Washington. But that is another story...