Weeds after Roses: What the Elections in Georgia Reveal to Ukraine and the World.

Last weekend, parliamentary elections were held in Georgia. Leading up to the voting period, the local opposition claimed that Georgians had to choose "between Europe and Russia," while the ruling party "Georgian Dream" futilely declared that the choice was "between peace and war," allegedly inevitable in the event of a victory for the pro-Western opposition.

In fact, the theme of "war and peace" was central during the final election rallies in downtown Tbilisi: on October 20, the opposition gathered their supporters under the slogan "Georgia chooses the European Union," while on the 23rd, supporters of maintaining the status quo took to the streets. Each of these mass events saw approximately 50,000 participants. Liberty Square, where the Rose Revolution began in November 2003, was completely filled on both the 20th and the 23rd.

It should be noted that the Saturday elections in Georgia were the most unpredictable in many years. Polls did not allow for even a rough assessment of the power dynamics. For example, the sociological company Savanta claimed that the opposition would collectively garner 65% of the votes, while "Georgian Dream" (GD) would secure only 35%. Meanwhile, the pro-government social service Gorbi gave GD 60% of the votes, noting that only two opposition parties would surpass the five-percent threshold: the "United National Movement" (UNM) of former president Mikheil Saakashvili (around 15%) and the "Coalition for Change" (just over 9%).

Immediately after the voting concluded, several Georgian media outlets published exit poll results conducted on their behalf. The channel Imedi, which is close to the Georgian authorities, provided optimistic results for the ruling party: according to these polls, "Georgian Dream" received 56.1%. However, two opposition channels – Mtavari and Formula – reported different results: their polls indicated that "Dream" received 40-42%. Based on these two exit polls, the opposition was confident that they had won the elections collectively. The leaders of the opposition parties even managed to make several victory statements. "Despite the violence, Europe has triumphed and so has the Georgian people. Today, it is not a single party that has won, but a European future. The time of Ivanishvili is over," stated Tina Bokuchava, chair of the "United National Movement."

Leader of "Strong Georgia," Mamuka Khazaradze, supported this sentiment: "Congratulations on the defeat of the Russian government in Georgia! The will of the people has been expressed. Now we must protect it and see this through to the end. I urge all our representatives at the polling stations to defend the votes of our voters until the last moment."

The leader of the ruling "Georgian Dream," Bidzina Ivanishvili, was also confident of victory: "This is a rare case in the world when the same party achieves such success in such a difficult situation."

It is worth noting that the final voter turnout in this election was lower than in 2012, when a change of power occurred, and the then-opposition "Georgian Dream" gained a parliamentary majority. By 8:00 PM on Saturday, when the polls closed, the turnout was 58.94% – 2,060,412 people cast their votes.

The group of independent observers, Transparency International Georgia, believes that falsifying election results directly at polling stations in Georgia is quite difficult, as an electronic voting system has been installed in most locations. As a result, less noticeable methods of influencing the election outcome are more frequently employed. Several sources who requested anonymity due to fears of repercussions informed the observers about this. According to Transparency Georgia, some voters were coerced to vote in a particular way using administrative resources. Others were promised solutions to social issues – for example, the issuance of necessary permits and certificates for small businesses or easier access to social benefits. Another method of manipulation involved the "rental of identification documents." Observers from Transparency International Georgia asserted that just before the elections, local officials visited residents and asked them to lend their identification documents for a day in exchange for cash rewards. In some cases, other individuals voted using these documents, while in others, non-participation was simply recorded. Observers emphasize that these manipulative methods were also present in previous years.

Regardless, after processing 100% of the ballots, the Central Election Commission of Georgia announced that "Georgian Dream" secured 53.9% of the votes in the parliamentary elections. Following the ruling party were four opposition forces: "Coalition for Change" - 11.03%, "Unity - National Movement" - 10.1%, "Strong Georgia" - 8.8%, and "Gakharia - For Georgia" - 7.7%.

The electoral map is particularly telling. In major cities – Tbilisi, Rustavi, Kutaisi, and Batumi – GD garnered less than 50% and collectively lost to the opposition. In other parts of the country, GD emerged victorious. In areas predominantly populated by ethnic minorities (Armenians and Azerbaijanis), the local Central Election Commission recorded support for the ruling party at 70-90%. Based on the election results, GD is expected to receive 89 mandates in parliament, "Coalition for Change" - 18, "Unity - National Movement" - 17, "Strong Georgia" - 14, and "Gakharia - For Georgia" - 12. Thus, the ruling party obtained the necessary quorum majority (76 seats) and promises to start working as soon as possible so that, according to Prime Minister Kobakhidze, "the processes continue in a normal mode for our country." However, judging by the intensity of the standoff in Georgian society, the authorities can only dream of an "ordinary mode." Primarily because the opposition and its supporters categorically do not believe in the victory of "Georgian Dream."

"Georgian Dream has stolen the victory from the people," declared Nika Gvaramia, leader of the "Coalition for Change." Opposition representatives assured that they had "uncovered the scheme" of election falsification, which included bribing voters, ballot stuffing, and instances of violence at polling stations. Indeed, there was violence at the polling places – in some cases, it even escalated into fights. However, the instigators were not always supporters of the government. For instance, at one polling station, a supporter of Mikheil Saakashvili shouted "Down with Putin and Russia" while breaking electronic voting machines, for which he was immediately detained.

Be that as it may, by the morning of October 27, all four opposition forces declared their non-recognition of the election results and promised to organize mass protests. The line of the opposition was continued in her Sunday special address to the public by the president of the country. "I want to speak on behalf of the only independent institution left in this state – I do not recognize these elections. The acknowledgment of these elections is impossible. It is tantamount to recognizing the arrival of Russia here, the subjugation of Georgia to Russia. I did not come to this country for that, our ancestors did not live for that, and we will not accept it," noted Salome Zourabichvili. Declaring the parliamentary elections held in the country as illegitimate and "totally falsified," she called on citizens to gather for a protest in front of the parliament building in Tbilisi on the evening of October 28.

Meanwhile, alongside street protests, some Georgian TG channels report that local opposition members are also considering a "peaceful" scenario, whereby the opposition might refuse their mandates in the new parliament. If the data from the Georgian Central Election Commission is confirmed, then GD would have, as noted above, 89 seats out of 150. Article 38 of the Constitution of Georgia states: "The Parliament acquires full powers from the moment of recognition of the powers of two-thirds of its members (that is, one hundred deputies). From that moment, the powers of the previous parliament cease." Thus, if the opposition carries out a mass parliamentary "hara-kiri," the elected parliament would not obtain full powers, which could lead to a power crisis and an extraordinary electoral reset of the legislative body of the country.

Considering possible plans of the opposition, Georgian authorities consistently promote the idea that their opponents want to deprive Georgians of a peaceful life by dragging them into armed conflicts. For example, Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze mentioned that after the polling stations closed, the actions of the opposition to destabilize the situation in the country would inevitably "be supported by a global party of war," operating from Washington and European capitals. The goal, according to Kobakhidze, is to "drag Georgia into a new war against Russia."

At the same time, Bidzina Ivanishvili claimed that such plans from the West existed as early as the first months of Russia's "special military operation." Last Monday, the pro-Russian billionaire recounted in an interview with the Imedi television company that a certain "high-ranking Western official" demanded that then-Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili start a war against the Russian Federation to "help Ukraine." "Irakli asked: 'But how do you imagine how many days we can fight, how many days we can withstand?' They said: 'Probably three or four days.' He replied: 'And for these three or four days, you want to destroy us?'" Ivanishvili recounted the dialogue. According to him, in response, the Western official said: "Not everyone will be