Neighbors are allies, almost: what's happening with the elections in Moldova and the USA?

According to official data received by the Central Election Commission of Moldova from all 2,219 polling stations, Maia Sandu garnered 55.33% of the votes, while Stoianoglo received 44.67%. When Mrs. Sandu's lead over her opponent exceeded nine percentage points and approximately 2% of the votes remained uncounted, the incumbent President of Moldova declared victory. "Moldova, you have won! In our vote for a worthy future, no one has lost. I have heard your voice - both from those who supported me and those who voted for Mr. Stoianoglo. I promise to be the president of all of you," she remarked.

It is quite noteworthy that in the last approximately eight to nine percent of polling stations, Sandu, having surpassed Stoianoglo, rapidly increased her lead: the last votes counted came from polling stations abroad, where a significant number of Moldovans living in Europe overwhelmingly supported the 52-year-old Sandu. It is important to note that in the first round of elections, she had 42.4% of the votes, while Stoianoglo, who came in second, had only 25.9%. However, even then, experts stated that Sandu's electoral potential was at its peak, while Stoianoglo still had room to grow. Additionally, the third-place candidate, Renato Usatyi, who received 14%, did not urge his supporters to vote for either of the two candidates.

After the publication of the final voting results, the "Party of Socialists" refused to accept Sandu's victory: "Maia Sandu has become the president of the diaspora, and we do not recognize the voting at overseas polling stations, which led to Sandu being declared the winner of the elections," the political force stated. At the same time, the socialists and Stoianoglo do not intend to challenge the elections in court or call on their supporters to defend the results of the vote. For them, as well as for Sandu, the campaign for the parliamentary elections in 2025 is likely beginning. More on the upcoming elections later.

Meanwhile, in the swamps, hysterical cries have begun. The spokesperson for Russian leader Vladimir Putin, Dmitry Peskov, stated that the Kremlin does not recognize the results of the elections in Moldova, where Maia Sandu emerged victorious.

"As for Mrs. Sandu, you know that she is not, as far as we understand, the president of her country, because in her own country, the majority of the population did not vote for her. We are talking about a very divided society," Peskov said.

And although the opinions of Russians and their "non-recognition" can – and should – be disregarded, Moldova, as its recent electoral history shows, is one of the few countries where the votes of the diaspora can play a joker's role. Specifically, two weeks ago, during the first round of presidential elections, a referendum on the European choice of the neighboring country was held simultaneously, and when the votes began to be counted, opponents of Eurointegration had nearly 10% more votes. However, after counting the votes from overseas polling stations, the decision to enshrine Moldova's aspiration to join the European Union in its Constitution was adopted, albeit with a minimal margin. This was made possible thanks to the position of Moldovans living abroad. By the way, in 2020, it was the votes of the diaspora that secured Maia Sandu's victory over her opponent, the then-incumbent president Igor Dodon, who represented the same "Party of Socialists" from which Alexander Stoianoglo is now running. He, like Sandu, called Eurointegration "the national idea of Moldova," but he is firmly associated with the image of a pro-Kremlin policy promoter.

It should be noted that the current victory in the presidential elections marks the beginning of a new and equally important electoral campaign for Mrs. Sandu and her political allies. The fact is that in the summer of 2025, elections for the highest legislative body will be held in Moldova, and since this neighboring country is a parliamentary republic, the outcome of the upcoming elections will determine the balance of power in its political matrix.

At present, Maia Sandu's party "Action and Solidarity" (DiS) holds an absolute parliamentary majority, which de facto transforms the head of state into the key politician of the country. Therefore, the stakes for Sandu are extremely high; if she faces electoral failure next year, she will become a lame duck with no real levers of influence. Moldovan analysts believe that DiS will not be able to maintain its absolute majority in parliament, and their maximum task is to achieve a majority in general. In this regard, experts believe that Sandu, with her "renewed" approach, should assist her party allies by demonstrating a high level of competitiveness. Speaking of competitiveness.

In the U.S., perhaps the most competitive elections in decades are coming to a close. Sociologist John King recently admitted on CNN that he had been closely following ten presidential campaigns but could not recall such "heated competition."

Given the intensity of the battle, candidates continued active campaigning right up until Sunday. Vice President Kamala Harris, after an unexpected appearance on the popular show Saturday Night Live alongside actress Maya Rudolph, where she played herself in a "mirror conversation" scene, visited the swing state of Michigan. It’s worth noting that many Arab Americans live there, and they could determine the fate of 15 electoral votes. At a campaign rally in East Lansing, the vice president began her speech by promising to resolve the conflict in the Gaza sector diplomatically, thus alleviating the suffering of both Palestinians and Israelis. Her running mate, vice-presidential candidate Tim Walz, continued campaigning in Georgia and North Carolina.

Meanwhile, Donald Trump visited Pennsylvania once again – a state that is highly likely to decide the outcome of the 2024 elections. He also went to North Carolina and Georgia. Vice-presidential candidate JD Vance, who accompanied the former White House occupant in North Carolina and Pennsylvania, also visited New Hampshire.

And although the well-known "day of silence" does not exist in the U.S., the current presidential candidates and their running mates wrapped up their rallies in key states late Sunday evening. It is expected that Donald Trump will celebrate his victory among supporters and journalists in Palm Beach, Florida, if he wins. Kamala Harris plans to spend Tuesday evening awaiting the results at Howard University in Washington, where she is an alumna.

Polls conducted between October 31 and November 2 on behalf of NBC News and NY Post showed that American voters' preferences are evenly divided – 49% for each candidate. A study by the reputable TIPP institute gave Donald Trump a slight edge of one percentage point, with both candidates at 49% support. An ABC News poll, which concluded on November 1, awarded the laurels of the winner to Kamala Harris: according to it, she leads the Republican by three percentage points, also with 49%. The New York Times poll gives Harris a one-point advantage at 48%.

According to national opinion aggregators RealClearPolitics and FiveThirtyEight, the gap between the candidates is less than one percentage point, which is within the margin of error. In fact, in the first of these polls, former President Donald Trump leads his competitor by 0.1 percentage points, while in the second, he trails her by 0.9 points. For comparison, President Joe Biden led Donald Trump by 7.2 percentage points two days before the election, while former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton led him by 1.8 points.

Thus, the polls, as we can see, did not identify a clear leader. At the same time, experts are concerned that such a competitive race may lead to prolonged uncertainty regarding the results. The authorities of Pennsylvania have hastened to warn that clarity may not emerge on the night after the elections. According to state laws, mail-in ballots cannot be processed until election day, and votes cast by mail will begin to be counted as soon as the polling stations close. According to an analysis by Votebeat and Spotlight PA, in some counties of the state, votes will be counted until the end of Wednesday or even Thursday. Meanwhile, in Wisconsin, due to special requirements for processing absentee ballots, counting is also expected to drag on for a couple of days, as experts predict.