Turbo mode in German: What does an unexpected electoral reset in Germany mean for Ukraine?

In just over three months, specifically on February 23, citizens of Germany will head to the polls for an unscheduled parliamentary election. The decision to hold early elections, which Chancellor Olaf Scholz initially planned for a later date, was recently approved by German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier. "The head of state welcomes the fact that parliamentary factions have agreed on a roadmap for a vote of confidence on December 16 and considers February 23, 2025, a realistic date for new elections," according to a special statement from the German president's office.

It is worth recalling that after the collapse of the ruling three-party coalition, Chancellor Scholz announced his intention to put the issue of a vote of confidence in his minority government (which was formed after the exit of the third junior partner, the Free Democrats, from the coalition) before the Bundestag on January 15. The subsequent scenario anticipated an almost inevitable vote of no confidence against the government, its dissolution, and early elections no earlier than March. However, all other political forces – including both opposition conservatives and the remaining allies of the Social Democrats in the form of the Greens – urged Mr. Scholz to expedite this process, arguing that the longer the period of political uncertainty lasts in Germany, the worse it will be for the country. Ultimately, the chancellor agreed to their demands.

Thus, on December 11, Olaf Scholz will submit a request for a vote of confidence in his minority government to parliament, and on December 16, deputies will make a decision. By that time, he has called for the approval of several "non-delayed" legislative proposals, including tax reform.

At the same time, it is essentially clear who will become the future head of the German government. All the recent polls show a stable "gold" for the conservatives led by Friedrich Merz, with 32% of the votes, alongside the conservative Bavarian party, the Christian Social Union (CSU). In second place, with a significant gap, is the far-right party Alternative for Germany (AfD): having garnered about 10% in the previous federal elections in 2021, this political force is now reportedly capable of attracting around 17% of voters, according to recent ratings by Die Welt. Meanwhile, the Social Democrats can boast only 16% support from the electorate. However, they are considered the most likely coalition partners for the conservatives after the February elections, according to German analysts. The CDU/CSU block, like all other political forces in Germany, has categorically refused to cooperate with the AfD – despite its growing popularity, the far-right party, which has systematically flirted with Putin’s Russia, remains a toxic ally for the leading parties in Germany.

However, the conservative and Social Democrat political tandem also has its skeletons in the closet. Recently, rocks have often been thrown from the CDU camp at Scholz and his cooperation with the Social Democrats under his leadership. Nevertheless, Scholz's party has made it clear that no one intends to "dump" him in favor of a more popular candidate for chancellor, such as Defense Minister Boris Pistorius. "Right now, it's about experience and competence, and I'm confident that Olaf Scholz is the right candidate," said Rolf Mützenich, the leader of the SPD parliamentary group, recently.

By the way, Mr. Scholz, who is always eager to talk on the phone with Putin, stated in the Bundestag on Wednesday, November 13, that Germany still needs to support Ukraine while preventing an escalation of military actions. At the same time, he emphasized that the aid sent to Kyiv should not be funded by cutting expenses for the welfare of Germans. "In my opinion, it cannot and should not be the case that support for Ukraine leads to cuts in pensions, restrictions in healthcare, and care for the sick," said Olaf Scholz. Continuing the topic of assistance to our country, the German chancellor emphasized that he remains opposed to supplying long-range Taurus missiles, which could be used for strikes deep into Russian territory. He stated that it is correct that Germany "has not become a party to the conflict and has prevented its escalation."

As German political scientists note, the future government led by the CDU/CSU will undoubtedly need a third partner. This could be the Greens, currently polling at around 12% support, whose leader Robert Habeck has already hinted that he would not mind returning to the new government under conservative leadership. Alternatively, the Free Democrats, who are closer to the conservatives on several positions, could fill this role, but only if they manage to significantly improve their ratings from the current 4% – below the five percent threshold required to enter parliament – by February.

Nevertheless, whatever the future German coalition turns out to be, it is clear that Friedrich Merz will play the leading role in it. With his arrival in the chancellor's office, Germany can expect a series of changes in foreign policy. For instance, the 69-year-old Merz publicly promised that if appointed chancellor, he would send long-range Taurus cruise missiles to Ukraine (and allow strikes deep into Russian territory) if Russia does not agree to cease hostilities within 24 hours. Additionally, he supported French President Macron's proposal to send NATO troops to Ukraine.

Certain bonuses from Mr. Merz's victory will likely be received by Israel as well. The CDU leader has always been a staunch supporter of the Jewish state: he previously called for naturalization in Germany to be conditioned on recognizing Israel's right to exist and harshly criticized the International Criminal Court's (ICC) decision to issue an arrest warrant for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. On the other hand, the rise of Friedrich Merz in Germany does not bode well for China and Putin's Russia. Recently, the head of the German conservatives has taken a much more militant stance towards Beijing than Scholz, sharply criticizing the chancellor's decision to approve the purchase of a stake in the port of Hamburg by a Chinese state-owned company and advocating for closer coordination with allies regarding China.

“Fluent in English and having led the Atlantic Bridge association for ten years, which promotes the development of German-American relations, Merz will be able to build better relations with the elected President of the United States, Donald Trump, than Olaf Scholz or Angela Merkel,” emphasizes the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung.

In turn, political scientist Alexey Golobutsky states: “Merz is a staunch anti-communist from a family of hereditary judges (which denotes elite education and social circles from the beginning of life). From 2007 to 2018, he was the chairman of the Supervisory Board of the German branch of BlackRock – the largest American investment company in the world. Under its management, there are currently $11 trillion (and together with Vanguard and State Street, it heads the list of shareholders of 85% of companies in the S&P 500 – that is, these three companies as strategic managers effectively own a large part of the U.S. economy). He also chaired the Atlantik-Brücke association, which "promotes German-American mutual understanding and Atlantism." Therefore, experts (especially from the pro-Kremlin pool) believe that Merz as chancellor will essentially be an "American gauleiter in Germany," just as Scholz is traditionally, for social democrats, more of a creature of the Kremlin. Like the same social democrat Schröder, who has held positions in "Rosneft" and other Russian companies for about 20 years. Incidentally, a term "Schröderization" was even introduced due to him – the corruption of the Kremlin's political elite in European countries."

Emphasizing that the German political elites are accelerating the renewal process due to the understanding of the risks associated with Trump's election, the expert concluded: “It is completely logical that during a period of deep restructuring of at least the global and European security systems, the third largest economy in the world (and the first in the EU by GDP) will be led by a politician not from Putin's circle, capable of productive dialogue with the 47th President of the United States.”