Considering the predicted trajectory and strength of Hurricane Milton, President Biden is postponing his upcoming trip to Germany and Angola to oversee preparations and response measures for the hurricane, White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre stated the day before.
During his visit to Germany, the current occupant of the White House was expected to attend a meeting he initiated, focused on supporting Ukraine, which German Chancellor Olaf Scholz was scheduled to hold on October 12 with President Zelensky, as well as French President Emmanuel Macron and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer. Additionally, Biden was set to visit Ramstein Air Base, where another meeting of a broader global coalition of Ukraine's friends will take place. After Germany, Biden planned to travel to Angola.
Initially, the move by the U.S. president was not commented on from Bankova, however, later Zelensky announced that the Ramstein group meeting was postponed due to Biden's inability to arrive in Germany. Nevertheless, the Ukrainian president is still set to meet with Scholz on October 12.
German government spokesperson Steffen Hebestreit expressed that Berlin regrets Biden's decision but understands it. Meanwhile, Pentagon spokesperson Sabrina Singh, responding during a briefing to a question about whether the meeting on Ukraine's defense would be rescheduled to coincide with the NATO defense ministers' meeting on October 17-18, stated that "there is currently no final decision on this matter."
Warnings about "Milton" emerged more than a week after Hurricane Helen resulted in 277 fatalities. Typically, such natural disasters impact the sitting administration, which usually faces criticism for its failure to adequately handle the aftermath, particularly ahead of elections, affecting the presidential candidate from the ruling party, in this case, Democrat Kamala Harris. However, this time, as noted by CNN, the influence of the "Helen"/"Milton" factor is not so obvious. This is partly because the hurricane has struck the most Republican-leaning districts and threatens to hinder the voting process there.
While it is too early to assess the consequences of "Milton," there is already a clear picture regarding Hurricane Helen, its predecessor. "Helen" has become one of the deadliest hurricanes in American history. In terms of casualties and destruction, the disaster that struck the southeastern United States is second only to Hurricane Katrina, which claimed around 2,000 lives in 2005. Currently, the death toll from the disaster, as mentioned above, has reached 277, but this is clearly not the final number: in one of the hardest-hit counties, Buncombe in North Carolina, around two hundred people are still reported missing.
In discussing the disaster and the measures taken to mitigate its effects, American media cannot overlook how the hurricane, which struck the North American continent shortly before the elections, might influence the election outcomes. According to Politico, the hurricane hit Republican areas particularly hard in the states of Georgia and North Carolina, each holding 16 electoral votes. This factor could work against Republican Donald Trump. Interestingly, this reality even led the notoriously controversial Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene to delve into conspiracy theories. "Yes, they can control the weather," she wrote on X. "It's funny that anyone would lie and say that's impossible."
Meanwhile, "Helen" also affected districts that support Democrats. For instance, in North Carolina, the aforementioned Buncombe County, one of the most severely impacted by the disaster, is considered a "stronghold of liberalism," noted political scientist Chris Cooper from Western Carolina University in a conversation with Politico. He added that another significant liberal-leaning district, Watauga, is also "in very bad shape."
American experts agree that "Helen" and "Milton" will undoubtedly influence the presidential race, but they find it challenging to predict how exactly, citing the atypical nature of this election. "In recent months, to put it mildly, unusual news has been pouring in like from a cornucopia. The public shock following the assassination attempt on Donald Trump in mid-July was overshadowed by the news of Joe Biden's replacement by Kamala Harris, then in September there was another assassination attempt on the former president, and now hurricanes... Meanwhile, there are still several weeks until the elections, during which a lot can happen," noted political consultant Anthony Bradley on ABC News. The expert specifically emphasized that Biden's decision to postpone his trip to Ramstein is "situationally justified but globally risky."
Meanwhile, Ukrainian analysts naturally assess the current occupant of the Oval Office's decision in the context of the ongoing war with Putin's Russia. "Biden, who initiated the meeting of leaders of the major countries participating in Ramstein, is not going to Germany. Personally, I don't believe the official position regarding the hurricane as the reason," remarked political scientist Igor Chalenko.
In turn, renowned international journalist Vitaly Portnikov emphasizes on his YouTube channel: "It is currently difficult to say what truly prompted the American president to postpone this journey, but it is evident that the election campaign in the United States, which is reaching its peak, might have affected Biden's schedule. It seems he had to choose: either tackle complex foreign policy issues or stay in the United States during the hurricane and demonstrate that the interests of ordinary Americans are more important to him as president, and therefore to Kamala Harris as his likely successor, than any foreign policy matters. Moreover, if we mention that Florida is traditionally considered one of those states where voting determines the fate of the presidency in the United States – this is certainly a significant motive."
Assuming that support for Ukraine in its struggle against Russian aggression may not become a crucial final chord in Joseph Biden's political legacy, Portnikov concluded: "Meanwhile, the Ramstein meeting involving leaders from the United States, Germany, France, and the United Kingdom should at least clarify how Europeans will act when, for instance, Trump comes to power and his administration aligns with Putin's foreign policy desires, thereby putting not only Ukraine but the entire European continent at risk. Furthermore, there remains the important question of Ukraine's Euro-Atlantic integration, although an invitation for Ukraine to NATO while not all allies in the Alliance agree remains a political fantasy. Nevertheless, a shift in the American position and the search for a guarantee model for Ukraine from NATO nuclear states could send a significant signal to Putin that despite his willingness to continue the war for the coming years, he still cannot conquer all of Ukraine and turn the neighboring country into a satellite of Moscow. All of this, of course, requires negotiations at the leadership level, meaning the Ramstein format is necessary."
Emphasizing that the current election campaign in the United States is a complete minefield in the informational-political sense and is developing in a tense and conflictual manner, political scientist Vladimir Fesenko stresses that it is extremely important for Ukraine to maintain bipartisan support despite the high stakes of the election battle. This, according to the expert, should be the defining imperative of Kyiv's policy towards the United States.
Romashova Natalia