In his suitcase – elections: the purpose of Chancellor Scholz's visit to Ukraine.

A striking photograph of Chancellor Olaf Scholz with a fashionable suitcase from the global brand Rimowa, priced at 1190 euros, was published by German media at the Kyiv train station on the morning of December 2. They noted that Mr. Scholz aimed to emphasize his "unyielding support for Ukraine" during his visit to the Ukrainian capital. German media also reported Mr. Scholz's intention to announce new arms supplies for Ukraine amounting to 650 million euros and to declare that Berlin would remain "the strongest supporter of Ukraine in Europe." "Ukraine can rely on Germany. We say what we do, and we do what we say," the German Chancellor was quoted by a television channel. Shortly thereafter, Scholz himself confirmed the delivery of new weaponry on the social network X.

It was not surprising that Olaf Scholz's visit to the Ukrainian capital was not announced in advance. Throughout the full-scale war with Putin's Russia, leaders of Western countries have often made sudden trips to Kyiv for security reasons. However, the fact that the German Chancellor chose to visit President Zelensky at this particular moment raised many questions. More on this later.

According to sources from the Bild publication, the German government's head’s trip to Kyiv was planned in advance—Scholz wanted his visit to occur after the U.S. elections and before the inauguration of the new occupant of the White House, which is scheduled for January 20, 2025. Given that the next American president is expected to be Republican Donald Trump, who has promised to "very quickly" end the Russian-Ukrainian war and has tasked his team with developing a settlement plan, Olaf Scholz, according to Bild, also wanted to gauge the Ukrainian side's readiness for various compromises.

Interestingly, the fact that the German government, while declaring its unwavering support for our country, is simultaneously exploring settlement scenarios is confirmed by the visit of Germany's Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock to Beijing, which she undertook while Mr. Scholz was in Kyiv. Speaking in the Chinese capital, Ms. Baerbock stated, "To protect our German and European security, it is now important to support Ukraine, and equally important to engage together in the peace process."

Considering that Germany is the second-largest partner of Ukraine after the U.S. in terms of military and financial assistance, the Chancellor's arrival was significant for Kyiv and was intended to demonstrate Berlin's solid commitment to the current course. However, Olaf Scholz's visit coincided with a period of political crisis in Germany itself. The ruling coalition has collapsed, a vote of no confidence against Olaf Scholz's government may take place in the Bundestag in two weeks, and early parliamentary elections are scheduled for late February 2025. The current Chancellor and leader of the Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD) is experiencing serious popularity issues but intends to personally lead his party into the elections. The magazine Der Spiegel notes that in this context, it is difficult to shake the impression that Mr. Scholz is using his visit to Kyiv for electoral purposes.

As is known, Olaf Scholz's key competitor for the position of Chancellor is Friedrich Merz, the leader of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), who is determined to regain control of the government for his once-ruling party. In the course of the power struggle, Mr. Merz has adopted an extremely tough rhetoric, criticizing Scholz's government for virtually everything, including its approach to Ukraine and the refusal to supply long-range missiles to the Armed Forces of Ukraine. In mid-October, Mr. Merz suggested that Scholz issue an ultimatum to Putin: "If he does not stop bombing the civilian population in Ukraine within 24 hours, then Germany should send Taurus missiles to Kyiv." Meanwhile, Olaf Scholz fundamentally disagrees with Friedrich Merz. The current Chancellor describes the CDU leader as "an unpredictable opposition leader" and emphasizes that he wants to present an ultimatum to a "nuclear power."

The current German Chancellor's visit to the Ukrainian capital has already faced criticism from the CDU, accusing him of conducting an election campaign "at the expense of the Ukrainian population while simultaneously catering to Russian narratives of fear." According to CDU deputy Roderich Kiesewetter, "This is not only indecent but also further isolates Germany and jeopardizes its security." "His trip is permeated with lies," Kiesewetter stated, reminding that the Chancellor refuses to provide Ukraine with long-range weapons and does not agree to Kyiv's requests for an invitation to NATO.

Scholz's visit to Ukraine was also commented on in the Kremlin. According to Putin's spokesperson Peskov, the Kremlin does not have "any expectations from this visit," although they are "monitoring all contacts." Additionally, the "voice" of the Kremlin dictator assured that Putin did not ask the Chancellor to convey any messages to Volodymyr Zelensky during their recent phone call. At the same time, Peskov acknowledged that the mere fact of dialogue between Moscow and Berlin is "a very positive phenomenon."

It is worth noting that Olaf Scholz last visited Kyiv in June 2022, alongside French President Emmanuel Macron and then-Prime Minister of Italy Mario Draghi.

President Zelensky, who began his current meeting with Mr. Scholz by visiting Ukrainian soldiers "who were wounded in battles against the occupier and are undergoing rehabilitation," stated that Germany is a leader in Europe in helping Ukraine, "and this helps us defend against Russian aggression and terror." Furthermore, the current occupant of Bankova mentioned that he and Scholz inspected drones with intelligent components and spoke with representatives of the manufacturing companies. Emphasizing that one of the topics discussed with the German Chancellor was the continuation of cooperation in the field of producing various types of drones, the head of state concluded: "Aerial and ground drones, FPV drones, control systems... This is the weapon that helps our defenders. And it is very important that such weapons are produced in Ukraine and in cooperation with Germany. I thank Germany for such vital support of our defense capabilities."

Meanwhile, Reuters, citing a spokesperson from the German Ministry of Defense, reported that the announced German military assistance, which will arrive in Ukraine in December, will include IRIS-T air defense systems, Leopard 1 tanks, strike drones, winter equipment, and heating supplies.

In the meantime, ordinary Ukrainians have been drawn not so much by Berlin's assistance as by the aforementioned mysterious case of Olaf Scholz, which has spawned memes about what it might contain—from a "red button" for launching nuclear weapons to Taurus missiles, which the German Chancellor stubbornly refuses to send to Ukraine. At a joint evening briefing with Zelensky, the high-ranking German guest dispelled all speculations. When asked by journalists about what exactly was in the silver suitcase he was filmed with upon his arrival in Ukraine, Scholz replied, "How detailed do you want to know?" "In general, these are the things that one usually takes on a trip, things to change into, things needed," he summarized.

Among other notable moments from the joint briefing of Zelensky and Scholz was the former's suggestion to Russia to go to three letters. Specifically, Zelensky, responding to a question about the possible concessions Russia should make during potential negotiations, stated: "What should Russia concede? To three letters. Preferably, for them to understand that they are doing what they are doing - killing us, while we are defending ourselves and fighting the enemy." The current guarantor of the Ukrainian Constitution also noted that the main topics of negotiations with the German Chancellor were strengthening the front, the future role of the European Union, and an invitation for Ukraine to NATO. Emphasizing that "our plans remain unchanged for now," Zelensky concluded: "Of course, we very much want to be stronger, so that this war ends in 2025."

"Personally, I agree with those German journalists who consider Scholz's visit to Kyiv to be cynical and unrelated to the realities of the Russian-Ukrainian war. In other words, the Chancellor is already in election campaign mode. Scholz simply used this trip and his dialogue with the President of Ukraine for his own domestic political purposes. At the same time, it was Scholz who broke Putin's diplomatic isolation and became the first Western leader to talk to him after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Now, through his negotiations with Zelensky, he seems to legitimize his own conversation with Putin, although it is quite obvious that during that conversation, Scholz achieved nothing from the Russian president except for listening to his conditions regarding the war he himself unleashed. In reality, Germany can make considerable efforts in supplying arms to Ukraine if new representatives of the American administration refuse to do so. And in this situation, regardless of what the current federal chancellor thinks, it will be impossible to do without Taurus. That is why it would be better for Ukraine if Friedrich Merz, rather than Olaf Scholz, headed the new German government," concludes the well-known international journalist Vitaly Portnikov on his authorial YouTube channel, commenting on Mr. Scholz's visit to Ukraine.