Anticipating Trump's return: how European allies are preparing for the Republican's comeback to power.
Recently, a summit of the European Political Community took place in neighboring Hungary, and the geographical location itself is noteworthy to some extent. Why? Because Hungarian Prime Minister Orban has previously expressed sharp disagreement with the European Union's position on a number of issues, including migration and the Russia-Ukraine war. There was considerable buzz surrounding Mr. Orban's shuttle diplomacy in July when he held talks in Kyiv with President Zelensky, then traveled to Moscow to meet with Russian dictator Putin, and later rendezvoused in the U.S. with then-presidential candidate Trump. At that time, EU leadership tirelessly reiterated that Viktor Orban was acting in a personal capacity, not as the head of a EU member state. A large group of Members of the European Parliament even called for Hungary to be stripped of its voting rights in the EU, as they believed Orban's hyperactive foreign policy had "caused significant harm, abusing the role of the country presiding over the Council of the European Union." Despite all this, on November 7-8, almost all European leaders gathered in Budapest to discuss the future of relations between Europe and the U.S. following Donald Trump's inauguration.
“The situation we discussed can be characterized as difficult, complicated, and dangerous for European peace and stability… We met because we believe that together we can better confront these dangers. We cannot lose a minute; history is clearly moving at an accelerated pace. The American elections have closed a chapter in history; the world will change faster than we think,” said Viktor Orban, speaking as the host of the meeting.
It is important to note that the word “unity” was frequently mentioned in the statements made by European leaders in Budapest. For example, EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell, who recently visited Kyiv, urged all Europeans to speak with one voice to “sit at the table in the geopolitical game, rather than end up on the menu” of the leading powers. “We must maintain our unity while building relationships with the U.S. We should strive for an open dialogue while caring for our own interests, acting from a position of strength as Europeans,” noted Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo, who added that Trump's victory could serve as a catalyst for strengthening Europe.
First and foremost, as leaders noted, Europe must take greater responsibility for its own security. “We cannot forever delegate our security to the Americans,” stated French President Emmanuel Macron, emphasizing that Europeans have no right to be “herbivores” in the midst of predators. His speech resonated immediately with UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, who called for the immediate development of a European security pact.
As is known, Donald Trump's relationships with many European partners were, to put it mildly, rocky throughout his first term. In particular, the Republican repeatedly threatened Europeans with the cessation of their protection if they did not meet NATO's demands regarding systematic allocation of 5% of GDP specifically for defense. Furthermore, Trump also warned of his readiness to impose tariffs on imports that could harm EU producers if Europeans did not provide more favorable conditions for American products.
Particular concern in the EU is that Donald Trump may significantly reduce aid to Ukraine or even cease such support altogether. As pro-Russian Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico explained, “many representatives from various countries” expressed this concern behind closed doors at the summit. “Some EU representatives say that in such a case, the community should take full financial responsibility for Ukraine,” Fico added, noting that he personally does not support such an option: “Slovakia will definitely be against it.”
In turn, the aforementioned Josep Borrell stated that all European leaders are convinced that the EU and the U.S. together “must continue to support Ukraine, as otherwise it would send a very dangerous signal not only to Russia but to other countries as well.”
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky also attended the summit of the European Political Community in Budapest. It is noteworthy that the current head of the Bankova visited Hungary for the first time since the onset of full-scale war. At the summit, Zelensky spoke second after Prime Minister Orban and before French President Emmanuel Macron. However, Macron's and Orban's speeches were broadcast live and posted online, while the speech of the current guarantor of the Ukrainian Constitution was completely omitted. Commenting on the situation, a Hungarian representative of the event's organizers stated that the Ukrainian leader's speech was not public and was allegedly not broadcast at the request of the official Kyiv. Meanwhile, as reported by Radio Free Europe, an unnamed Ukrainian representative stated, “we did not make any requests regarding not broadcasting or publishing the speech.” A small but telling detail that clearly illustrates the reluctance of Europeans to “rock” their societies with sharp statements from the Ukrainian leader.
Ultimately, video footage of the president's speech became available online, and from it, Zelensky primarily thanked allies for their support of Ukraine and the Ukrainian people. However, he immediately noted the following: “We are defending ourselves not from Russian words, but from Russian attacks. Therefore, we need a sufficient amount of weapons, not support in negotiations. Embraces with Putin will not help. Some of you have been hugging him for 20 years, and it only gets worse. He thinks only of wars and will not change. Only pressure can put him in check.”
Stating the need to apply the concept of “peace through strength” in contrast to pushing Ukraine towards concessions, Volodymyr Zelensky concluded: “Let me emphasize – this war is happening on Ukrainian soil. We are open to any constructive ideas for achieving a just peace. But it is Ukraine that must decide what should and should not be on the agenda for ending this war.”
It should be noted that even more critical remarks towards allies were voiced by Zelensky during a press conference following his participation in the summit of the European Political Community. In particular, in an elevated tone, he demanded that European leaders finally return over $300 billion of confiscated Russian assets to Kyiv. Zelensky's emotions amid systemic delays in Western assistance are quite understandable, but it is unlikely that the high temperature of his rhetoric will bring even one meter closer the much-needed financial resources for Ukraine in its confrontation with the aggressor country.
At the same time, it is crucial that Zelensky spoke very cautiously regarding Washington. He stated that it is too early to predict what course the 47th president of the United States will choose. But in any case, from the president's perspective, a strong America is needed for Europe, and vice versa.
In the immediate aftermath of the Budapest summit, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk noted that important declarations regarding a ceasefire in Ukraine could be expected soon, including the borders within which it would operate and security guarantees for Ukraine. “These will certainly be decisions that will entail less U.S. involvement in Ukrainian affairs. But decisions about the war in Ukraine cannot be made over the heads of not only Ukrainians but also our own,” emphasized Mr. Tusk on Polish Radio.
It should be noted that over the past weekend, the Ukrainian information space was stirred by a statement from Brian Lanza, an advisor to newly elected U.S. President Donald Trump since 2016 and one of the strategists of the Republican Party. In an interview on the BBC World Service program “Weekend,” he said: “When Zelensky says that we will stop these hostilities, that peace will come only when Crimea is returned, we have news for President Zelensky: Crimea is gone... And if your priority is to return Crimea and make American soldiers fight to get Crimea back, you are on your own.” To soften these words, Lanza noted that he “deeply respects the Ukrainian people because they have the heart of a lion.” However, he added that for the U.S., the priority is not the continuation of the war, but “peace and the cessation of killings.” He criticized the support that the Biden administration and European countries provided: “The reality on the ground is that European nation-states and President Biden did not give Ukraine the opportunity and weapons to win this war at the very beginning, and they failed to lift the restrictions for Ukraine's victory.”
Most Ukrainians would likely agree with the latter thesis, believing that the war could have ended long ago if Mr. Biden had been more decisive and had not constantly looked back at the notorious Putin's “red lines.” At the same time, it is quite obvious that Brian Lanza is deeply mistaken regarding the Crimean Peninsula. By the way, he should refresh his memory and recall that during Trump's first term, his administration firmly maintained the position that Crimea is Ukraine. The question of whether there are any reasons today for that position to change is rhetorical.
Incidentally, during the transition administration of Donald Trump, it was hastily stated that Brian Lanza did not speak on behalf of the elected president of the United States, urging Ukraine to “forget about Crimea” as a prerequisite for peaceful settlement. Furthermore, as reported by Reuters, they emphasized that the transition administration of Trump is currently engaged in staffing and “developing policies” that the Republican may implement during his second coming to the White House.
Meanwhile, according to The Washington Post, elected U.S. President Donald Trump allegedly spoke with Putin on the phone last Thursday, November 7. One of the publication's sources reported that during the call, which Trump made from his resort in Florida, he advised the Russian dictator “not to escalate the war in Ukraine” and reminded him of “significant U.S. military presence in Europe.” However, Putin's representatives denied this information. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov publicly denied the fact of the conversation, further complicating the situation. Later, a collage