Damn Moscow: How and why Trump put Putin in a tough spot.

On Monday, October 21, U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin made an unannounced visit to Kyiv. He brought with him a $400 million aid package for ammunition, military equipment, and weaponry. The Pentagon chief emphasized that under President Joe Biden, the United States will continue to strengthen its support for Ukraine.

A few days prior, President Zelensky stated that representatives of the American administration were expected to visit Ukraine for a more detailed discussion of the "victory plan." It is unclear in what format this plan was discussed with Mr. Austin, but it is evident that his arrival is directly linked to the prospects of the war, especially in light of a potential change in U.S. leadership. We will delve deeper into the possible rotation in the White House.

Former U.S. President Donald Trump recently claimed in an interview with The Wall Street Journal that he threatened Kremlin dictator Putin in a private conversation, saying he would "hit the center of Moscow." However, he did not specify when or where this conversation took place. "I told Putin: 'Vladimir, we have a great relationship.' I got along well with him; he has a different character, I’ll tell you, very different from others; I knew him very well. So I said, 'Vladimir, if you go into Ukraine, I will hit you so hard you won’t even believe it. I will strike right at the center of fricking Moscow.' I said, 'We’re friends; I don’t want to do this, but I have no choice,'" Trump emphasized, adding that Putin responded to this threat with "No way."

It is worth noting that this conversation between Trump and Putin had not been publicly known before. Meanwhile, in his recently published book "War," American journalist Bob Woodward writes that at least one secret conversation between them took place in early 2024. Specifically, according to Woodward, during this period Trump instructed his aide to leave his office at his Florida residence to conduct a phone call with Putin. However, the book does not reveal what they discussed. Overall, sources close to Bob Woodward suggest that Trump may have had seven conversations with Putin since leaving the Oval Office in 2024.

In the swamps of Trump's words about "hitting the center of fricking Moscow," there was an immediate surge of rhetorical excitement. In particular, Putin's spokesperson Peskov stated: "We still prefer to maintain a very responsible position regarding not disclosing the contents of conversations held at the highest level. Some world leaders do not adhere to such informational 'hygiene.' That’s on their conscience. Of course, there are many hot and emotional statements being made in the United States as part of the electoral campaign right now."

So, as we can see, despite attempts to "dodge," the Kremlin dictator's press secretary did not directly deny Trump's words, which says a lot. Meanwhile, the well-known Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, Dmitry Medvedev, believes that Donald Trump could not have threatened to strike Moscow in a conversation with Putin: "Trump has gone off the rails. Did he really say he would 'hit fricking Moscow'? Of course not. He was as smooth as silk in negotiations. And there’s only one response to such words: your fricking Washington will also be hit. Overall, our relationship with him is quite warm."

While the aggressor country is in turmoil, the electoral battle in the U.S. is intensifying day by day. This is not surprising, as there are just over two weeks left until the finish line of the 2024 presidential race. Currently, according to consolidated data from RealClearPolitics, Kamala Harris is in the lead. The aggregator gives her a 1.3 percentage point advantage over 2.2 p.p. a week earlier – a very shaky lead, to say the least. At the same time, during the previous presidential race, Joe Biden led Trump by 8.9 p.p., and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in 2016 led by 6.5 p.p. However, although Mrs. Clinton received the majority, surpassing her opponent by 3 million votes, she lost in the electoral college and thus lost the electoral marathon.

The popularity of Vice President Kamala Harris is undergoing significant changes. A recent NBC News poll showed a decline in her approval ratings among voters. Over a few weeks, her popularity dropped from 48% to 43%. Trump's support, on the other hand, is around 46%. "This shift indicates that the electoral battle is escalating literally every minute," concludes The Hill.

As for the fight for key states, the scales have tilted in favor of Donald Trump. Here, the Republican has an average advantage of 1 percentage point. Currently, the derby for voter favor is essentially narrowing down to three states, two of which are part of the so-called "blue wall" – traditionally voting for the Democratic Party, Wisconsin and Michigan. However, the fiercest battle is expected to take place in Pennsylvania, where both candidates, according to FiveThirtyEight, have roughly equal chances of victory. According to RealClearPolitics, Trump even has a slight advantage of 0.7 p.p.

Meanwhile, Donald Trump himself is reportedly fully immersed in staffing issues, modeling his own victory. An unnamed Republican strategist told the Washington Examiner that as early as the beginning of 2024, two campaign heads, Chris LaCivita and Suzy Wiles, began conducting a "tough and disciplined" selection among those whom Donald Trump would bring into his team if he wins. In August, the politician appointed billionaire and CEO of the financial company Cantor Fitzgerald Howard Lutnick as head of the transition team. This team also includes former Administrator of the Small Business Administration Linda McMahon, Trump's sons – Donald Trump Jr. and Eric Trump, former Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard, and former presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Tulsi Gabbard told Fox News that she hopes for a position in international relations. Meanwhile, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. would like to help "dismantle and rebuild the public health system."

"Donald Trump is currently in an unusual position: many members of his former cabinet do not support him. Thus, in the event of a victory in the election, loyalty will be a key factor in appointments. Among the high-ranking officials of the new administration, former White House Chief Advisor Stephen Miller, popular far-right media figure Steve Bannon, and former Assistant Attorney General Jeffrey Clark may be present," notes CNN.

There is also an expectation of billionaire Elon Musk's involvement in the administration: Trump stated that he plans to appoint him as "Minister of Cost Reduction." Meanwhile, several individuals are vying for the position of Secretary of State. The Hill and The Times name Senator Marco Rubio, a member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, as the leading candidate.

Also on the shortlist are Senator Tom Cotton (who is also being considered for Secretary of Defense), Senator and former Ambassador to Japan Bill Hagerty, former National Security Advisor to Donald Trump Robert O'Brien, former Ambassador to Germany Richard Grenell, and North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum. Meanwhile, John Ratcliffe – Director of National Intelligence from 2020-2021 – is being discussed as a potential head of the CIA or the Department of Defense. Another name mentioned by sources from The Times in this context is General Keith Kellogg, who served as an advisor to former Vice President Mike Pence.

An unprecedented staffing frenzy is being observed not only among Republicans but also among Democrats. Citing sources close to Vice President Kamala Harris, Axios reports that if she wins, the government will include relatively young (compared to Trump's team) individuals, many of whom will belong to ethnic minorities. It is reported that Senator Chris Coons, who is part of the Foreign Affairs Committee, is being considered for Secretary of State. CIA Director Bill Burns and National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan are also on the list, according to Axios.

The Department of Defense may be headed by Michelle Flournoy, former Deputy Secretary of Defense under President Barack Obama. If this happens, she will become the first woman to lead the Pentagon. The U.S. Ambassador to the UN could be the Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg – one of the candidates on the shortlist for the vice presidency in the Harris administration. Phil Gordon is likely to become National Security Advisor, although he currently holds a similar position one step lower – in the Vice President's office. Meanwhile, most publications agree: whatever position Phil Gordon occupies in Kamala Harris's cabinet, he will be the "gray cardinal" shaping all foreign policy. It is important to note that Mr. Gordon, who worked in the administrations of Barack Obama and Bill Clinton, is currently very tough on Putin's Russia.

"During his time working with Ms. Harris, Phil Gordon prepared her for meetings with more than 150 world leaders, countless global conferences, and intelligence briefings with the president. And if he is appointed National Security Advisor next year, the 61-year-old expert on Europe and the Middle East could have a tremendous impact, becoming both the architect of the new administration's doctrine and a key executor of foreign policy decisions," writes The Wall Street Journal.

The publication, however, "does not dare to predict" how the White House's policy on the Russian-Ukrainian war will change if Ms. Harris wins. Meanwhile, assessments of the current leader Joe Biden, even though he will be in the Oval Office until January 2025, are already beginning to emerge.

"Biden told National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan: 'If we don’t completely drive Russia out