censor.org.ua
Европа на пороге конфликта: анализ армий Украины, ЕС и России.

Europe is bracing for conflict: a comparison of the military forces of Ukraine, the EU, and Russia.

In the lead-up to Donald Trump's inauguration, during which he pledged to end the war in Ukraine within 24 hours, tensions in the region continue to escalate. NATO is preparing for military action, while Europe, which has long relied on the United States, faces the urgent need to bolster its armed forces to counter Russia. Novini.LIVE conducted an analysis of the military capabilities of Ukraine, Russia, and EU countries, as well as examining the current balance of power in Europe.

NATO Prepares for War

In recent days, the world's attention has been focused on Brussels, where a meeting of the NATO Military Committee at the level of chiefs of defense staff from member countries took place. The meeting addressed key issues of collective defense, deterrence strategies, and support for Ukraine. Particular emphasis was placed on developing new defense plans aimed at creating a "shield" against potential threats from Russia.

"There is not a single sign that Russia is preparing for peace", declared NATO Military Committee Chairman Admiral Rob Bauer.

In his view, the Kremlin has no desire to halt the war, and therefore NATO countries must provide a suitable response to such aggressive actions. He also added that Russia's war against Ukraine has global implications, as other countries are getting involved in the fighting.

"Russia is increasingly cooperating with China, Iran, and North Korea. This requires a united and strong response. That is why we are putting more effort into military cooperation and the exchange of knowledge and experience with our partners", emphasized Bauer.

Meanwhile, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte stated that NATO is currently not prepared to respond to military threats coming from Russia. According to him, the current state of security is "the most threatening" in decades, urging allies to "adapt to the new reality," shift to a "wartime mindset," and increase defense spending.

"To prevent war, we must prepare for it", said the NATO Secretary General.

Notably, on the eve of the NATO meeting, while speaking in the European Parliament, Rutte warned EU countries that they would have to learn Russian in 4-5 years if they did not allocate significantly more money for military needs than the current 2% of GDP.

"If we do not do this, in 4-5 years we will have to attend Russian language courses or move to New Zealand", said Rutte.

Following the meeting, plans were announced for nearly a hundred exercises in 2025 aimed at improving the combat readiness and cohesion of alliance forces. Additionally, Japan announced the establishment of an independent mission at NATO, indicating an expansion of cooperation between Tokyo and the Alliance amid rising tensions with Russia, China, and North Korea. Lithuania also announced plans to increase defense spending to 5-6% of GDP, citing the threat of Russian aggression, making it the first NATO country to take on such a commitment.


"Europe Has No Chance Against Russia Without Ukraine"

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky made several bold statements, urging the European Union to be "three times more pragmatic" and to increase arms production — both for Ukraine and for itself, to "get ahead of Putin."

"I am confident that Russia fears the U.S., fears China, and fears a united Europe. Europe without the Ukrainian army cannot cope with the Russian army because the Russian army is larger in numbers. Russia has more weapons, more people, and is more ruthless than Europeans", listed the head of state.

For more detailed information on the size of the armed forces and the amount of equipment of the land, naval, and air forces of European countries, see the infographic.

 

Zelensky also emphasized that Europeans do not know what war is and will not be able to stop Putin without Ukraine.

"Without the Ukrainian army, Europe unfortunately has no chance against Russia today. Putin knows this and speaks about it in his inner circle. Therefore, if Ukraine does not defend itself, he will quickly move on. That is a fact", believes Zelensky.

 

Military expert, retired Colonel of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Oleg Zhdanov emphasizes that many European countries have not developed their military capabilities over the past decades. Following the example of Angela Merkel, EU governments have cut defense budgets, leaving their armies in a state of personnel divisions with minimal active fighters. For example, the Bundeswehr has been effectively dismantled, and Chancellor Olaf Scholz only began restoring its combat capability in recent years.

"Europeans have indeed relaxed, relying on the U.S. and ignoring the need for self-defense", Zhdanov told Novini.LIVE.

 

As for NATO, according to him, since 2008 NATO has increasingly resembled a political organization rather than a military alliance. Moreover, the expansion of member states complicates consensus-building. Additionally, countries with pro-Russian positions, such as Hungary, Austria, and Slovakia, hinder the adoption of key decisions.

"No single EU country can, let alone fight, even ensure its own defense. And uniting into a single system will likely not happen quickly, as they have hardly engaged in organizational cooperation. Exercises were conducted only on Ukrainian territory with the participation of the Ukrainian army. Therefore, if they do not increase their own spending, they may soon face problems", says Zhdanov.

 

He also noted that one of the most capable armies in Europe is that of Finland. "Finland is currently the strongest among European countries. They have never forgotten the lessons of history and have always prepared for resistance. Among other leaders are Italy, Spain, Sweden, Norway, as well as France as a nuclear power, but with its own issues. Romania has also been actively developing recently", says the expert.

Alternatives to NATO

In light of NATO's weakening and the growing threat from Russia, new alliances are emerging that could change the balance of power in Europe. Already, France and Italy are attempting to strengthen their armed forces and create an independent military bloc that could serve as a foundation for future cooperation. Poland, Ukraine, and Lithuania are also prepared to develop their defense and possibly create new security structures independent of the U.S.

 

 

Therefore, the development of local alliances could be a good option for ensuring security for Ukraine.

"There are several such alliances today. One of them is the Franco-Italian alliance. But it is currently being blocked by the U.S. It is not advantageous for them at this time. However, if Trump turns away from NATO, it could serve as a catalyst for its development. The second is the so-called Lublin Triangle, which includes Ukraine, Poland, and Lithuania. These countries have already adapted to NATO standards. Additionally, Britain may join it", Zhdanov explained to us.

Even without participation in the alliance, the Ukrainian army can rightfully be considered the most capable in Europe. "Yes, Russia has a complete advantage over us; however, we inflict significant losses on the enemy. So significant that 'Kyiv in 3 days' has turned into a war that has lasted for 3 years", says Zhdanov.

Moreover, Kyiv has repeatedly stated its readiness to offer the placement of its troops on European territory, which could be a key step in strengthening the continent's security. The only question is how prepared Europe is for such changes.