The likelihood of reaching an agreement on a ceasefire in the full-scale war initiated by Russia against Ukraine in the first quarter of 2025 exceeds 50%, considering Donald Trump's victory in the U.S. presidential elections and his initial statements, according to Tomas Fiala, founder and head of one of Ukraine's leading investment companies, Dragon Capital.
"I believe that now, after these elections in the U.S. and the outcome we have, along with the initial statements we are seeing, there is a chance greater than 50% that agreements on a ceasefire may be reached in the first quarter," – Fiala said at the annual general meeting of the European Business Association (EBA) in Kyiv on Tuesday, as reported by a correspondent from Interfax-Ukraine.
According to the investment banker, in such a scenario, the intensity of the war would significantly decrease.
"But as we saw after 2015, following Minsk-2, there were still some provocations at the front, and a lower-intensity conflict continued. This will likely be the case again, but the intensity could substantially decrease, the front may stabilize, and there won't be such movements or the use of heavy weaponry and so many troops from both sides," – added the head of Dragon Capital.
He believes that, just as after 2015, a ceasefire would allow businesses to operate and provide more long-term predictability, as well as facilitate progress in Eurointegration.
Fiala noted that he is not particularly optimistic about Ukraine joining the EU by 2030, although it could theoretically be possible with acceleration.
"As you saw from the report that the European Commission published about two weeks ago, we have made progress over the last year, but not at the pace we should be advancing in the next five years to be in a position by 2030 where only ratification would remain," – explained the head of Dragon Capital.
However, the investment banker added that the process of Eurointegration itself significantly motivates investment growth.
The Executive Director of the EBA, Anna Derevyanko, noted that the business community expects a ceasefire by 2025.
At the same time, the head of the National Bank of Ukraine, Andriy Pyshny, stated that the NBU has abandoned estimates of the potential duration of the war in its latest forecasts, partly due to the inaccuracies of initial assessments and the prolongation of the conflict.