The International Monetary Fund (IMF), in its updated Extended Fund Facility (EFF) program with Ukraine, has added an earlier end to the war to the list of risks that could impact macroeconomic scenarios, indicating that it could lead to a wide range of consequences.
The negative macroeconomic forecast scenario from the IMF anticipates an increase in the current account deficit in 2025 by $1.9 billion compared to the October forecast, reaching $24.5 billion and $31.9 billion (excluding grants), along with a rise in international reserves by $5.8 billion to $41.1 billion.
"The scenario suggests a longer and stronger shock to economic activity, budget needs, and the balance of payments compared to the baseline scenario, with subsequent implications for macroeconomic policy," the document from the updated memorandum following the 6th review of the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) program states.
According to the pessimistic macroeconomic forecast, the current account deficit for 2026 has been worsened by $1.5 billion to $22.6 billion and $28 billion (excluding grants). At the same time, for 2027, the Fund has adjusted it downwards by $2.6 billion to $9.6 billion and $13.7 billion (excluding grants).
Additionally, the IMF has improved the forecast for international reserves under the negative scenario for 2026-2027 by $3 billion, reaching $43.5 billion and $45.5 billion, respectively.
It is noted that the total external financing deficit under this scenario amounts to $177.2 billion, compared to $148 billion in the baseline, while in October it was estimated at $187.1 billion.
According to the recently published updated report following the sixth review of the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) program, the IMF has only slightly increased the inflation forecast, as well as the current account deficit for 2025 by $1.9 billion to $31.9 billion excluding grants, compared to the negative scenario from October.
At the same time, due to improved external financing in the negative scenario, the estimate for international reserves at the end of the next year has been raised by $5.8 billion to $41.1 billion and by $3 billion in the following two years—up to $43.5 billion and $45.5 billion, respectively.
The estimate of the total external financing deficit under this scenario has been reduced to $177.2 billion compared to $148 billion in the baseline, while in October this deficit was valued at $187.1 billion.
Consequently, the assessment of public debt has also improved by 2.9 percentage points to 114.6% of GDP, compared to 104.3% of GDP in the baseline scenario.