The National Bank of Ukraine has once again revised downward its forecast for the outflow of migrants from Ukraine this year in its October inflation report – this time from approximately 400,000 to 500,000 people. In absolute terms, this indicates an increase in the number of migrants remaining abroad this year to 6.9 million.
"In the summer of 2024, the risk of a larger outflow of migrants abroad than previously anticipated materialized due to a very challenging energy situation. Therefore, the assumption regarding the net outflow of external migrants in 2024 has been worsened compared to earlier estimates (to about 500,000 people)," the published document states.
At the same time, the National Bank added that a greater outflow this year means a decrease in the number of those planning and able to leave, which suggests that in 2025, the outflow of migrants is expected to be lower than previously thought – around 200,000 instead of 300,000.
"The prolonged war and significant electricity shortages will continue to drive external migration, and later – a slow return of migrants to Ukraine over the forecast horizon," the NBU notes.
In the new report, it confirmed expectations for the beginning of Ukrainians returning home in 2026; however, it reduced the forecast for net inflow in 2026 to approximately 200,000 from 400,000. Thus, by the end of 2026, 6.9 million migrants will still remain outside Ukraine.
"The risks of a greater outflow of migrants abroad and a lower rate of their return still prevail. Due to the prolonged stay of Ukrainians abroad, their adaptation in host countries is increasing, which poses risks both for their return and for additional departures of those currently in Ukraine for family reunification abroad," the National Bank believes.
It is noted that this will negatively impact the labor market's workforce supply and reduce potential consumer demand. The growing needs of the economy for skilled labor will lead to further imbalances in the labor market and will stimulate wage growth above productivity increases in certain sectors.
According to updated data from the UNHCR, the number of Ukrainian refugees in Europe as of October 15 this year was estimated at 6.192 million, while globally it was 6.752 million, which is respectively 38,000 and 27,000 more than on September 24 this year.
In Ukraine itself, according to the latest UN data for August this year, there were 3.669 million internally displaced persons (IDPs), which is 121,000 more than in April this year.
According to regional authorities cited by the UN, from August 1 to October 3, more than 120,000 people left the Donetsk region in eastern Ukraine, including 19,500 who fled active combat. In the Sumy region, authorities estimate that 36,000 people were evacuated, including 6,000 children.
As noted by Deputy Minister of Economy Serhiy Sobolev in early March last year, the return of every 100,000 Ukrainians home contributes to a 0.5% increase in GDP. The Ministry of Economy's macroeconomic forecast for this year anticipated the return of 1.5 million people to Ukraine.