The total cost of recovery in Ukraine as of December 31, 2024, is estimated at $486 billion over the next decade, which is approximately 2.8 times higher than the projected nominal GDP of Ukraine for 2024. This updated "Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment (RDNA4)" was released by the government of Ukraine, the World Bank Group, the European Commission, and the UN on Tuesday.
"Over the past year, the needs for Ukraine's recovery have continued to grow due to ongoing attacks from Russia," commented Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal on the findings.
Last year, the estimated needs were $486 billion, and the year before that, they were $411 billion.
It is noted that the RDNA4 assessment, which covers the damage incurred over nearly three years from February 24, 2022, to December 31, 2024, indicates that the direct damage in Ukraine has now reached $176 billion, compared to $152 billion in the RDNA3 assessment released in February 2024. The most affected sectors include housing, transportation, energy, trade, industry, and education.
According to the current assessment, 13% of the total housing stock has been damaged or destroyed, affecting more than 2.5 million households. In the energy sector, the number of damaged or destroyed facilities has increased by 70% since the RDNA3 assessment, including production, transmission, distribution infrastructure, and centralized heating. About 72% of the total damage is concentrated in all sectors located closest to the frontline areas (Donetsk, Kharkiv, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson), as well as the Kyiv region.
"The assessment highlights the extraordinary damage that Russia has inflicted on Ukraine. The EU is already supporting the reconstruction and recovery of Ukraine by mobilizing more private investments through the Ukraine Investment Framework and helping the country integrate more deeply into the EU Single Market. This will be the key to Ukraine's recovery and create new opportunities for both Ukrainian and European businesses," said EU Commissioner for Neighborhood and Enlargement Olivér Várhelyi.
Of the total long-term needs, recovery and reconstruction requirements are highest in the housing sector—nearly $84 billion. Following are the transportation sector—almost $78 billion, energy and extractive industries—around $68 billion, trade and industry—over $64 billion, and agriculture—over $55 billion. In all sectors, the costs for clearing debris and managing it amount to nearly $13 billion.
The assessment identifies and excludes needs exceeding $13 billion in eight sectors that Ukraine has already met with the support of partners and the private sector. For instance, according to the government, in 2024, at least $1.2 billion from the state budget and donor funding was allocated for the recovery of the housing sector. Emergency repairs were carried out on more than 2,000 km of roads, highways, and other state-owned roads.
In 2025, with donor support, the government of Ukraine allocated $7.37 billion to address priority tasks in areas such as housing, education, healthcare, social protection, energy, transportation, water supply, demining, and civil protection. The total funding gap for recovery and reconstruction needs in 2025 stands at $9.96 billion. Mobilizing the private sector remains critically important for the successful recovery of Ukraine.