Putin is planning an attack on the EU—who will be the first victim and when will it happen?

A detailed forecast has been published on the official DDIS website.

What Russia Plans to Do

According to DDIS assessments, Russia is actively modernizing its military in order to achieve parity with NATO. Support from China, North Korea, and Iran allows Moscow to allocate significant resources for rearmament.

Although Russia is currently trying to avoid actions that could trigger NATO's collective defense article, DDIS believes that Moscow may become more daring if it perceives a shift in the balance of power in its favor.

The report emphasizes that Russia is preparing for a possible war with NATO, but a final decision to initiate it has not yet been made. Such a decision could be taken if Russia believes that the U.S. will not provide sufficient support to European countries in the event of a conflict with Moscow.

When Putin Might Attack the EU and NATO

DDIS predicts that the cessation of hostilities in Ukraine will free up Russian resources for preparing to confront NATO. Six months after the end of the war, Russia could initiate a local conflict in one of its neighboring countries, and within two years, it may pose a real military challenge to NATO countries, particularly in the Baltic region.

In five years, DDIS estimates that Russia will be ready for a large-scale military conflict in Europe if it is convinced of the absence of active U.S. involvement.

Additionally, the report highlights the increase in Russian military presence in the Arctic and the potential for provocative actions, including simulations of attacks on aircraft from other regional states.

Recall that the deputy commander of the 3rd Special Operations Brigade, Maxim Zhorin, explained the offensive tactics of the Russian army and discussed "meat assaults."

There has also been media coverage about what is happening with the Russian army's armament and how many Soviet stockpiles they still have in their arsenal.