How long can Ukraine survive without U.S. aid? An economist shares insights on the country's future without American support.

Journalists from Novini.LIVE discussed this with economic expert and PhD Yuriy Maslov.

— How might Donald Trump's presidency impact Ukraine's economy?

— I have very optimistic expectations regarding the Republican coming to power in the USA. It inspires me that Trump has mentioned peace in Ukraine 33 times already. It encourages me that the American president has made this one of the top priorities of his foreign policy. I truly hope that, despite internal political struggles, opposition resistance, and the elections scheduled in two years to refresh part of the Congress and Senate, he will be compelled to fulfill his campaign promises and do everything possible for our country to sign a fair peace. I believe that the main focus today is on intentions and aspirations, as well as the fact that Ukraine remains in the spotlight of U.S. foreign policy, particularly with an emphasis on peace. Everything else is just technical details. It seems to me that achieving peace in 24 hours is impossible. Unless, of course, in some fantastical situation. But I do not see such a prospect — I see a long, persistent diplomatic effort in which our country must defend its positions acquired during the war.

— The future Trump administration announces a reduction in aid to Ukraine. Will our country manage without this funding?

— It is indeed difficult to predict. The American political system is structured in such a way that the current power, which practically fully controls Congress, the Senate, the executive branch, and the Supreme Court, views the issue of supporting Ukraine somewhat differently than the previous representatives of the Democratic Party. I think that both sides will globally fight for a strong America that dominates the world, but the mechanisms for achieving this may differ. Again, I believe that today all residents of our country are expecting a fair peace as soon as possible. This is evidenced by all the independent sociological surveys openly published in our country. In this context, the aspirations of Ukrainians and the declarations of the American president fully align concerning the fair peace that should be achieved as soon as possible.

— How will decisions made at the top in the USA affect Ukraine's social sector?

— In the past and this year, we planned to cover the budget deficit, which is about $40 billion, through external aid. If the volumes of external assistance decrease, it means that Ukraine will have to either find internal sources of income (which may include tax increases) or reduce expenditures. This will also affect social payments. This is the responsibility of the political force that will be in power in 2025.

If the Americans refuse to help us, we will have no choice but to cut our expenditures. Europe is also in a state of reset, so we cannot rely on it. New elections are scheduled in Germany on February 23. Meanwhile, a serious political crisis is escalating in France. In other words, Europe is changing in any case. This is also a kind of dynamic political mechanism. Therefore, it is always important to understand that the key to the survival of any country is the awareness of its subjectivity and personal responsibility for its actions. Simply put, if you have 500 hryvnias in your wallet, you cannot spend two and a half thousand hryvnias.

— Will increasing taxes for businesses help the economy or harm it?

— In my view, increasing taxes is absolutely the wrong policy for our country. The economy needs to be boosted through tax liberalization. Today, a great example is the United Arab Emirates, particularly Dubai. There is also the example of Montenegro, which is quite transparent and a country where entrepreneurs from all over the world come. It seems to me that Ukraine should choose this path rather than the path of endless tax increases.

With the current level of taxes, we will increasingly see businesses shutting down, which will simply go underground. And no one will be able to control it. So far, this is a very realistic scenario. In fact, the individual entrepreneur (FOP) was the only liberal niche allowing small and medium businesses to operate. Now, there is virtually no Ukrainian business left. We no longer have metal exports, gas extraction, or mineral fertilizer exports. Essentially, we are left with only the agricultural sector. And small and medium businesses are the second group. In fact, with this tax policy, we are eliminating the desire of people to live and develop in this country.

— How long can we sustain ourselves without external support?

— The Minister of Finance stated that we have enough internal resources for six months. I believe that by now, we certainly have enough. Provided that we are moving toward peace. However, there may also be a scenario where the volumes of aid decrease, and we do not have time to sign peace. This also needs to be taken into account. After that, we need to see what conditions we will find ourselves in. I believe that peace will be signed, and our country will prosper. It will be great and powerful. And then all 7.7 million Ukrainian refugees should return home. This is currently the most important question.

— What steps should be taken for Ukraine's economic growth in 2025?

— The current losses due to Ukrainians leaving for abroad and combat losses on the front are much more traumatic for our country on a per capita basis than the losses suffered by the Soviet Union during World War II. Based on this, people outside Ukraine represent a colossal reserve for growth, as the economy cannot develop without people. In my opinion, the biggest challenge next year is the issue that politicians are already contemplating and even creating formal ministries to engage these people in the life of the country. This discussion is very relevant today. The main challenge is to convince young people who are already abroad of the necessity to return. And this is the most critical task for the political force that will be in power in Ukraine in 2025.

At the beginning of the year, predicting the economic situation in Ukraine is very difficult, as it depends on many variables, particularly the full-scale war. However, our country is demonstrating an incredible example of resilience: enterprises continue to operate even amidst constant threats and dangers. This proves that Ukrainians are capable of adapting to challenging conditions, and it is crucial for our society not to lose this determination and resilience in the future.

It should be noted that under financial monitoring in 2025, all bank clients may fall. To protect oneself from checks, it is necessary to closely monitor transactions in accounts. Suspicious operations can attract the attention of financial institutions.

We also reported that several dozen Ukrainian banks and even non-banking financial institutions have signed a Memorandum to ensure transparency in the functioning of the payment services market. They agreed to strengthen control over clients and minimize cases of shadow economy.