Will Trump end the war? What do the US want, and what is Ukraine willing to agree to?
End the War in 100 Days
During his election campaign, U.S. President Donald Trump promised to end the war just one day after returning to the White House. Naturally, few believed that Trump could bring a three-year conflict to a close in 24 hours, as he eloquently promised multiple times while running for president. Unfortunately, the miracle did not occur.
Nevertheless, the missed deadline — along with the scant mention of the war during the inauguration events on Monday — highlights how challenging it will be to conclude the war in Ukraine.
As a result, by the second day of Trump’s presidency, a new timeline for ending the war emerged. According to The Washington Post, Trump tasked his special representative for Ukraine and Russia, retired General Keith Kellogg, with achieving an end to the war within 100 days.
It is worth noting that Kellogg is an advocate for a peace strategy that employs both carrots and sticks. He believes that Ukraine should risk a total cut in military aid from the U.S. if it refuses to negotiate, while Russia should face significant increases in support for Kyiv on military matters.
"We are talking to Zelensky, and we will very soon be talking to Putin. And we will see how this all unfolds. We will see this very soon. But I believe that the EU needs to pay much more than it is currently paying," Trump stated in response to a question about what he would do if Russia refused to negotiate.
In the early days of his presidency, Trump also warned Russia that he would impose high taxes and tariffs, as well as sanctions on everything Russia sells to the U.S. and other countries if a peace deal with Ukraine is not reached soon.
"If we do not reach a 'deal' soon, I will have no choice but to impose high taxes, tariffs, and sanctions on everything Russia sells to the United States and various other participating countries," Trump wrote in his post on the social network TruthSocial, adding that by calling for an immediate end to the Russian-Ukrainian war, he intends to provide "a very great service" to President Putin and Russia, whose "economy is collapsing." "This can be done the 'easy way or the hard way,' but 'the easy way is always better," Trump noted.
"Trump Doesn't Know If Russia Is Ready for Negotiations"
Choosing such a strategy may indicate a lack of consensus within Trump’s inner circle, which appears to be divided into two camps based on their statements. The first camp, including Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, advocates for a peace plan and compromise agreements with Russia.
The second camp, which includes Secretary of State Marco Rubio and National Security Advisor Michael Waltz, believes that Moscow is not interested in ending the war, and therefore must be compelled to sit at the negotiating table through economic and military pressure.
"I think Trump genuinely does not know whether Russia is willing to negotiate. Or if it is more advantageous for them to continue military actions. Much will depend on how the first call between Trump and Putin goes," said political scientist Alexei Yakubin to Novini.LIVE.
The only question is how serious additional sanctions from the U.S. and military aid to Ukraine can be. After all, if, for example, tariffs on Russian goods are discussed, the trade turnover between the U.S. and Russia is already expected to fall to its lowest levels since 1992 by the end of 2024.
According to political scientist Vladimir Fesenko, new sanctions may weaken Russia, but are unlikely to compel Putin to sit down for negotiations.
"Sanctions against Russia have existed since 2014 and have significantly intensified after 2022. Yes, they have harmed Russians, but the Russians have adapted. New sanctions can indeed weaken Russia. But it is far from certain that they will force Putin to negotiate," Fesenko told Novini.LIVE.
According to him, a much more effective lever of pressure could be a collapse in oil prices. "Whether the Americans will go for this, considering that they also profit from oil, is unknown. But if Trump tries to increase production and reach an agreement with the Saudis, that would be a good sign for us. However, it should be noted that this requires time and effort. And it cannot happen quickly," Fesenko stated to Novini.LIVE.
Freezing the War, Refusal of NATO, and U.S. Pressure
The very appointment of Kellogg as special representative for Ukraine and Russia, along with Trump’s statements, indicates that the White House is leaning towards a "carrot and stick" approach in resolving the Ukrainian issue, says political scientist Alexei Yakubin to Novini.LIVE.
Recall that in October 2024, the Centre for Eastern Studies published a summary of the Trump administration's plan regarding the war between Russia and Ukraine. Among other things, the plan included the following points:
- Exerting pressure on both Moscow and Kyiv to reach a ceasefire and initiate negotiations
- Postponing Ukraine's NATO membership for 10 years.
- Allowing Russia to retain occupied territories and gradually lifting sanctions.
- Normalization of relations with the U.S. is permissible on the condition of concluding peace agreements acceptable to Ukraine.
- Continuation of military aid and bilateral security guarantees for Ukraine. Ukraine does not need to officially recognize Russia's control, but must refrain from changing the status quo by force.
- Ending U.S. military assistance if Ukraine refuses peace negotiations.
"It seems that the White House has adopted Kellogg's plan as a basis. That is, to influence Kyiv and Moscow to achieve negotiations. Trump needs quick actions. He has already announced a call between Trump and Putin. According to the plan, there is also a meeting. Therefore, Trump will try to reach agreements. And it is unlikely that quick agreements will satisfy us. Thus, it is very important for Kyiv to get to Trump during this time, so that Ukraine's position does not end up being the worst," Yakubin said to Novini.LIVE.
Are Compromises Possible?
Currently, there are several significant disagreements in the positions of the parties that Trump will face in his attempts to get Russia to the negotiating table.
First of all, as Yakubin states, official Kyiv continues to insist on its "Victory" plan. "But, most likely, we will have to prepare for a compromise. If we talk about guarantees, one way to obtain security guarantees is to involve a peacekeeping contingent with the participation of the U.S., France, Britain, and other countries. In this case, if Russia tries to attack again, it will face NATO troops directly. Thus, without joining NATO, Ukraine would receive a guarantee from NATO. In exchange, Ukraine has already offered Trump various economic bonuses for American investors, including access to natural resources worth trillions of dollars," Yakubin explains.
However, there is one nuance in this plan, Fesenko points out. "The idea of involving a contingent with European peacekeepers is very appealing to Americans. Some EU countries are even ready for this. But the problem is that Putin is unlikely to agree to have NATO peacekeepers on Ukrainian territory. Moreover, it is unclear who would oversee compliance with the ceasefire," Fesenko tells Novini.LIVE.
According to him, there are also disagreements between Ukraine and the U.S. regarding the peacekeepers. "They likely want the peacekeeping contingent to consist of Europeans, while we want the inclusion of Americans. This is where the contradiction lies," Fesenko said.
As President Zelensky stated in an interview with Bloomberg, Ukraine is open to the presence of a peacekeeping contingent. And it could certainly help, "if there is goodwill from other countries." "But again, this cannot be viewed as a purely European initiative without the United States. This is exactly what Putin constantly wants," Bloomberg quotes Zelensky.
Another compromise that Ukraine will likely have to consider is freezing the war along the demarcation line. "This is the only possible compromise for today. But even achieving that will not be easy, and it certainly cannot be done overnight. First, the frontline needs to stabilize. And the Americans understand this. For that, a lot of weapons are needed