The power deficit for electricity production in the upcoming heating season is estimated at 3-4 GW, with the potential for an increase due to ongoing missile strikes by the Russian Federation on energy facilities. However, there are plans for its replacement, as stated in the published memorandum on economic and financial policy regarding the 5th review of the EFF program with the IMF.
"Authorities estimate a significant winter deficit of electricity – 3-4 GW with prevailing risks of worsening the situation as missile attacks continue. The authorities have an ambitious plan that includes the installation of up to 1 GW of additional generating capacity, including gas turbines, by the end of 2024, increasing electricity imports from the EU to over 2 GW, and repairing most of their damaged thermal capacities by key players such as DTEK," the document notes.
It is also indicated that domestic gas production by the Naftogaz Group and other players will meet a large part of the gas demand from households and industrial consumers, while the remaining gas needs will be covered through imports – up to 3 billion cubic meters.
As reported, DTEK, which has suffered damage to about 90% of its thermal generation capacities due to nearly 190 attacks since the start of the full-scale invasion, has invested 2.3 billion UAH in the repair and restoration of thermal power plants since the beginning of 2024. By the end of the year, these investments will increase to 3.8 billion UAH. Due to unprecedented destruction of thermal power plants, restoration on a 24/7 basis will continue throughout the winter and in the following years.
The head of "Ukrenergo," Alexey Brecht, mentioned at the end of September that factors reducing the deficit include the expected increase in electricity imports from 1.7 GW to 2 GW (later noting the potential for growth to 2.2 GW), the possibility of utilizing emergency assistance from European countries amounting to 200 MW, the planned introduction of 500 MW of distributed generation facilities by the end of the year, and additionally restoring 1 GW of thermal generation capacity by winter.