The National Bank of Ukraine, after raising the official exchange rate of the hryvnia against the dollar by 1 kopeck on Wednesday, strengthened it by 9 kopecks on Thursday, resulting in a rate of 42.1729 UAH/$1, according to data on the regulator's website.
The NBU set the reference rate at 12:00 on Thursday at 42.1971 UAH/$1, compared to 42.2650 UAH/$1 the previous day.
In the cash market, the dollar's exchange rate decreased by 21 kopecks for purchasing – to 42.61 UAH/$1, and by 17 kopecks for selling – to 42.70 UAH/$1.
Meanwhile, analysts from the currency exchange operator "KIT Group" predict that in the near term, the hryvnia will maintain its exchange rate within the range of 42-43 UAH/$1, observing a stabilization process following the seasonal spike in demand for currency at the end of 2024.
"The low economic and business activity in January will contribute to the stability of the exchange rate in the short term. Evidence of this is the spread between the buying and selling rates of the dollar: it remains relatively stable, indicating a balance between supply and demand in Ukraine's currency market," the analysts note in their January review-forecast of the currency market situation.
According to their expectations, during the first half of 2025, the hryvnia is likely to weaken to 44 UAH/$1, which aligns completely with the government's budget forecast for this year.
"Preventing extreme exchange rates during the first half of the year will allow the National Bank and the economic bloc of the government to maintain an exchange reserve, enabling them to stay within the projected parameters of an average annual exchange rate of 45 UAH/$," emphasize experts from "KIT Group."
At the same time, in their opinion, controlled devaluation could become one of the tools for budget replenishment through duties and other fixed fees in foreign currency, including certain excise taxes.