The government maintains its forecast for a 7% increase in Ukrainian exports by 2025, despite this year's lower-than-expected harvest of late crops, reported Taras Kachka, Deputy Minister of Economy and Trade Representative of Ukraine.
"This is an absolutely objective, even trivial forecast. It is clear that a more optimistic forecast could also be possible," he stated to the Interfax-Ukraine agency during the conference "Matrix of Reforms: Foundations for Strengthening Economic Growth for EU Accession," which took place in Kyiv.
At the end of October, the National Bank of Ukraine improved its estimate for the growth of goods and services exports in 2025 to 0.9% from 0.5%, or to $57.7 billion, in the tables accompanying the Inflation Report. However, the report itself predicted a decline in goods and services exports in 2025 due to the smaller harvest and weak demand for IT services, with a recovery expected in 2026 as the economy gradually returns to normal operating conditions.
At the same time, Kachka pointed out that it is necessary to consider not just the total harvest volume but also the mix of crops, especially in terms of exports.
"For example, if we pay attention to the fact that this year we have a smaller share of corn, correspondingly, we have a larger share of soybeans, a larger share of rapeseed, and a larger share of sunflower – these are commodities for which we generally have better prices," he explained.
The trade representative added that the price situation has changed.
"Therefore, a rise in grain and oilseed prices next year is quite possible and organic. And now, as we analyze the market, we understand that it is indeed possible to earn more with smaller volumes as well," Kachka concluded regarding agro-exports.
Speaking about metallurgical product exports, he noted that much will depend on decisions made in North America regarding tariffs, as this is an important market for Ukraine.
According to him, exports of metallurgical products are growing and may exceed 20% this year – for both semi-finished products and cast iron, as well as finished products.
"Therefore, the question also lies in what the security situation will be, what the energy situation will be, and so on, but export growth is also possible," noted the trade representative of Ukraine.
According to the NBU's balance of payments data, exports of goods and services from Ukraine increased by 8.4% in the first nine months of this year, reaching $41.33 billion, including goods up by 10.3% to $28.64 billion, and services up by 4.4% to $12.69 billion.
During this time, imports of goods and services rose by 0.9% to $66.66 billion, including goods up by 6.2% to $49.65 billion, while services decreased by 1.9% to $17.01 billion.