Bashar Assad’s regime, once thought to be unshakeable, has experienced a rapid decline.
This was noted by Dr. Azim Ibrahim, a senior director of special initiatives at the New Lines Institute, in an article for The Telegraph. He added that even Russia's support does not guarantee Assad's safety.
The Syrian leader initially sought refuge in the UAE, where some of his relatives were already located; however, international pressure might have compelled the United Arab Emirates to deny him political asylum. Consequently, his only option became Russia—a long-time ally that has consistently supported his regime through military and diplomatic assistance.
"But even for Russia, Assad's future is far from guaranteed. Although he may currently reside in a secluded dacha, shielded from the remaining chaos, his long-term security is tied to Vladimir Putin's condition. And Putin's own position is becoming increasingly precarious," the expert notes.
Putin's position is becoming more unstable due to the uncertainty of the war in Ukraine and Western sanctions that are weakening Russia. If Putin faces defeat, new leadership in Russia may decide that Assad is "expendable." This scenario is not unprecedented in post-Soviet countries: after Slobodan Milosevic’s downfall in Serbia, the new government extradited him to The Hague to improve relations with Europe.
"Assad could face a similar fate," adds Azim Ibrahim.
Despite the importance of maintaining military bases in Syria for Russia, supporting Assad could hinder the normalization of relations with the West. In the event of a leadership change in Syria, a new government might be willing to grant Russia access to these strategic bases in exchange for abandoning its protection of Assad.
Source: telegraph.